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THE FUTURE OF BROOKLYN.

THE CITY'S PROMISED GROWTH AND INCREASE,
WITH COMMENTS ON THE BUILDING STATISTICS
FOR THE YEAR 1888.

MESSAGE OF THE HON. ALFRED C. CHAPIN, MAYOR.

DECEMBER 13, 1888.




MAYOR'S OFFICE,      }
CITY HALL, BROOKLYN, }
December 13, 1888    }


_To the Honorable, the Common Council_:

GENTLEMEN:

In this message I shall attempt a general statement of the condition
of the city, and of its building operations. For the purpose of
broadly considering the city's present condition and standing among
similar communities, the returns of the recent Presidential election
furnish valuable data. Presidential elections call out a full vote,
and thus afford an indication of the relative growth of the different
cities of the country. The following table is believed to correctly
state the total number of votes cast in the four leading cities for
President at the recent election:

Total vote cast in 1888.

    New York          270,194
    Philadelphia      205,747
    Brooklyn          148,868
    Chicago           123,475

In 1880 the vote of these several cities in the Presidential election
bore the following proportion to the population as shown by the census
of the same year:

Number of population to each voter in 1880:

    New York          5.87.
    Philadelphia      4.92.
    Brooklyn          5.29.
    Chicago           6.06.

The following table contains the population of each city in 1880, and
the apparent population at present, basing the estimate upon the vote
of this year, and assuming the ratio of population to the numbers of
voters to remain the same as in 1880:

                     Population           Apparent population
                      in 1880.                 in 1888.

    New York,        1,206,299.               1,585,529.
    Philadelphia,      847,170.               1,014,332.
    Brooklyn,          566,663.                 782,221.
    Chicago,           503,185.                 748,258.

The method of reaching this conclusion cannot be called unduly
favorable to our city. The difference in the ratio existing between
the population and the voters in 1880 in Chicago and in Brooklyn would
seem to indicate either that Chicago possessed an unusually large
unnaturalized population, or else that it did not poll its full vote.
If the unnaturalized population of our own city is larger than it was
in 1880, the above estimate may be too small. If the increase of
population since 1880 has been one that brought with it a larger
proportion of women and children than the increase before 1880, the
above estimate is too small. Whether either of these possible
modifications should be given serious consideration is a matter of
conjecture upon which some light may be thrown by what will be set
forth in this communication.

The twenty-six wards now comprising the city of Brooklyn, contained in
1880 a population of 580,313; if, therefore, their present population
as above estimated is 782,221, there has been an increase in eight
years of 201,903, or an average annual gain for each of those years of
25,237. But the population in 1870 was 396,099, and in 1875, as
enumerated by the State Census, it was 484,616, showing a gain for the
five years of 87,518, or an average annually of 17,500. Between 1875
and 1880 it rose to 566,663, the total gain for the five years being
82,047, the average annual gain being 16,400. It should, therefore,
first be noticed that the rate of increase of the last decade was more
rapid during its first half than during its closing half. The present
decade began in a period of more moderate growth than that of some
years previous. We may, I think, safely assume that the falling off in
the gain between 1875 and 1880 was largely due to the opening of the
system of elevated roads in New York City in 1878. Making all
necessary allowance for the increase due to the Twenty-sixth Ward,
which was not a part of the city in 1880, it is still impossible to
believe that the average annual gain of 16,400 which prevailed from
1875 to 1880 could have been abruptly changed to the average annual
gain of 25,237 which has prevailed from 1880 to the present time. We
must, then, assume that during the years since 1880 the rate of growth
of the city has advanced quite materially; and that the average
increase of the first three or four years of the present decade may
not have been much in excess of the average increase of the five years
from 1875 to 1880. A sufficient cause for the change of the rate of
growth is furnished in the opening of the Bridge in 1883.

A further promoting cause is found in the opening of the Brooklyn
Elevated Railway in 1885. We must, therefore, assume the average
annual gain for the past eight years (of 25,237) to be greater than
the average gain of the three or four years following 1880. If so, it
is obvious that the gains for the present year and for the years
immediately preceding must have been greater than 25,000. That the two
causes suggested contributed to change the rate of growth is not
likely to be questioned by any one. But they are only the
accompaniments of a broader and more persistent cause, which is the
fundamental reason of the existence of the bridge and of our present
system of rapid transit. This larger cause is a general change in the
relation between New York and Brooklyn, gradually manifesting itself
as a necessary result of the development of the whole metropolitan
community surrounding the port of New York. The first two causes,
therefore, though permanent, were auxiliary and specific. The last is
a general, continuous condition, whose force seems unlikely to
decline, but more likely to augment from year to year. The first two
causes, also, may be said to have a fixed or, at all events, an
ascertainable maximum influence, based upon their respective capacity
to transport passengers. They are merely methods of transit. Their
capacity may in time be exhausted. In such case they may be
supplemented; new bridges can be built, and doubtless will be; newer
elevated railroads have been built and opened for business since the
construction of the one already mentioned. More elevated railroads are
to be built. In addition to the Brooklyn Elevated Railroad Company,
already named, now operating six and three-fourths miles of railroad,
the Kings County Elevated Railroad Company is operating five and
one-half miles of railroad, and the Union Elevated Railroad Company is
operating four and three-fifths miles, forming together a system of
nearly seventeen miles, which promises to increase its capacity as
well as its mileage. Construction is still progressing upon these
lines, and it is reported that at the close of the year 1889, or
earlier, there will be twenty-five miles of elevated railroad in
operation in the city.

These features of the city's condition call attention to the fact that
we have reached a period of development, at which it is our duty to
provide clearly and understandingly for the needs of a far greater
population than that now included within our limits.

In earlier days Americans did much empty boasting and made many
glorious predictions. At the same time, so far as material
preparations are concerned, they could do little for those coming
after them. The art of living had not then been studied as it since
has been. Sanitary science can hardly be said to have been in its
infancy, for in this country it seemed to have no existence whatever.
In the establishing of enduring and fundamental principles of
government, and in the field of law much was done for us and for our
posterity by the men of previous generations, but it was necessary
that there should be a gradual education of the business sense of the
country before men could appreciate the nature and import of the
problems now presented in the growth of cities. It was necessary that
a more leisurely aspect should come over life; that comfort and health
should be more highly prized. The more purely intellectual side of our
ancestors' work was well done; but the needs of the by no means
distant future, the inheritances which our successors should receive
from us, are of a different description. Pavements, sewers, sufficient
water supply, parks, schools, public buildings, an enlarged
application of the results attained in sanitary science, and the solid
work of masonry are the inheritances we should transmit, rather than
far reaching adjudications, such as that of the Dartmouth College
case, or comprehensive enactments, such as the ordinance establishing
the Northwest Territory. Naturally, the greatest and most pressing
need will arise here at the centre of the greatest population. How
great that need may be, or how great a population may congregate
within our area or upon the borders of the bay of New York, we cannot
indeed actually estimate, but to some extent we can forecast it. Such
forecasts are not useless. In his message of December, 1861, President
Lincoln said: "There are already among us those who, if the Union be
preserved, will live to see it contain two hundred and fifty
millions." Such a vision of the future, at a time of extreme trial,
seemed to him neither vain nor fanciful. Its utterance was evidence
that he possessed the sort of political imagination which a statesman
should possess if he is to discern the drift of public thought, or to
picture the future material condition of his country. When compared
with other estimates, his outlook was not extravagant, though it may
not be realized. Its concern for us is direct and unavoidable. For the
course of history, in our own land and abroad, makes it clear that the
population about the port of New York is to hold a place of high
importance in the nation, both numerical and otherwise.

The State of New York passed to the first place in population in the
nation in 1820. Since that day the population of the Union, of the
State of New York, and the combined population of the cities of New
York and Brooklyn, at each decade from 1820 to 1880, and the
percentage of increase in each decade, have been as follows:

          Population            Population            Population
          of New   Increase     of the   Increase     of the   Increase
          York and    per       State of    per       United      per
  Years.  Brooklyn.   cent.     New York.   cent.     States.     cent.

  1820      130,881             1,372,111             9,633,822

  1830      215,049   64.3      1,918,608   39.8     12,866,020   32.51

  1840      348,943   62.2      2,428,926   26.5     17,069,453   33.52

  1850      612,385   75.5      3,097,394   27.5     23,191,876   33.83

  1860    1,072,312   75.1      3,880,735   25.2     31,443,321   35.11

  1870    1,338,391   24.8      4,382,759   12.9     38,558,371   22.65

  1880    1,772,962   32.4      5,082,871   15.9     50,155.783   30.08

Thus the combined population of New York and Brooklyn has at all times
since 1830 grown at a rate much more rapid than that of the growth of
the State of New York; the rate of growth of the two cities has at all
times exceeded the rate of growth of the population of the whole
Union, although the rate of growth of the population of the State of
New York has not kept pace with that of the population of the United
States since 1830. But for the growth of the two cities, the State
would, before this time, have ceased to hold the first place. The
degree to which the population of the two cities has gained upon that
of the State in the whole period, is quite notable. Their proportion
of the population of the State in 1820 was less than one-tenth; while
in 1880 more than one-third of the population of the State lived in
Brooklyn and New York. On the other hand, in 1820, the State of New
York included more than one-eighth of the population of the whole
Union; while in 1880 it embraced a little less than one-tenth of that
population. At present, adopting the estimates already given, based
upon the Presidential vote for this year, New York and Brooklyn
include nearly, if not quite, two-fifths of the population of the
whole State.

Without adopting Lincoln's prediction, we need only look forward to a
time when the country may contain one hundred and fifty million
people. Even then, the density of its population will be much less
than that of older countries or of some States of the Union. If the
population of the State of New York failed to hold its present
relation, and fell off until it numbered but eight per cent. or about
one-twelfth of the population of the Union, it would still contain
more than twelve millions of people, of which a population surpassing
one-half might be found in or near these two cities. As the two cities
grow, apparently an increasing proportion of that growth must come to
Brooklyn. The mere question of area goes far to determine such a
result. Each mile of departure from the New York City Hall emphasizes
the inequality in the quantity of residence area lying respectively
upon Manhattan Island and within our limits. It is four miles from the
New York City Hall to Sixtieth street; and the capacity of the area
below that street for purposes of residence may be said to be well
nigh exhausted. The encroachments of business below that division line
seem likely to diminish its capacity to furnish homes nearly as
rapidly as improvements in building methods may augment such capacity.
Of the twenty-four Assembly Districts in the City of New York,
nineteen--to wit, one to eighteen inclusive, and the twentieth--lie
wholly below Fifty-ninth street. In these nineteen districts the
increase of registration in 1888 over that of 1884 is 13,641. The
remaining five districts lie almost wholly above Fifty-ninth street;
and in them the increase is 32,110. Apparently more than seventy per
cent. of the growth of New York during the past four years has been
north of Fifty-ninth street. Not only must this comparatively fixed
condition of New York below Fifty-ninth street remain or become more
and more marked, but the line of division between the growing and the
fixed parts of the city must rapidly shift from Fifty-ninth street to
One Hundred and Tenth street. For of the area between Fifty-ninth
street and One Hundred and Tenth street a substantial part is devoted
to Central Park, and is unavailable for residences. Furthermore, the
presence of Central Park causes land east and west of it to be much
sought after, and to command high prices. That part of New York,
therefore, which lies between Fifty-ninth street and One Hundred and
Tenth street is to be largely taken by people whose means are
abundant, and of the space not already occupied, but a small part will
be left for the sort of population from which Brooklyn draws its chief
and characteristic growth.

How far existing conditions may be disturbed by new means of transit
or by new works of life in New York City, no one can now tell. At
present, the broad fact is, that the whole area of Brooklyn (excepting
only the more remote parts of the Twenty-sixth Ward, the former town
of New Lots) is nearer in distance to the New York City Hall than that
part of New York City lying above One Hundred and Tenth street.

Furthermore, the residence area lying between Fifty-ninth and One
Hundred and Tenth streets in New York is not one-seventh of that lying
between lines of like distance in Kings County.

To attempt a close estimate of the future population of New York and
Brooklyn might be neither wise nor profitable. Some conception of the
general course or character of that development is the most that is
practicable. All nineteenth century progress discloses a tendency to
concentration of population. In our own country the inhabitants of
cities formed one-thirtieth of the population in 1790; one-eighth in
1850; and nine-fortieths or half way between one-fifth and one-fourth
in 1880. In this State a full one-half of the population dwelt in
cities in 1880. The proportion now is not less than three-fifths, and
is rapidly approaching, if it has not already reached, five-eighths.

The population of the Union since 1820 has increased at a rate varying
by decades from over 35 per cent. to 22.65 per cent. The lowest rate
was that of the war decade. The rate per decade since 1870 has been
more than 30 per cent. The population of the cities of New York and
Brooklyn has at all times increased more rapidly than that of the
nation. This was true even during the war decade, although the marked
falling off of their rate of growth in that decade disclosed a decided
sensitiveness to whatever influences accelerated or retarded national
growth. New York and Brooklyn, indeed, have at all times shown by
their rate and character of progress and growth that they are
reflections of the development of the nation rather than of that of
any State or locality. We may, therefore, safely say that the growth
of the united population of New York and Brooklyn hereafter, as in the
past, will depend chiefly upon the general progress of the whole
nation. How rapid this progress will continue, how great proportions
it may finally attain can only be vaguely conjectured. Lincoln's
forecast of two hundred and fifty millions of souls during the life
time of people who were in existence in 1861, would seem to have been
over-sanguine, although it was not without parallel or precedent. The
decade between 1850 and 1860, at the close of which he was speaking,
had witnessed a most rapid national growth, that is, a rate of more
than thirty-five per cent. for the whole Union. Percentages decline as
aggregates increase. The rate of thirty per cent. which has prevailed
since 1870, would not produce two hundred and fifty millions
(250,000,000) of people until after 1940. It is too much to assume
that such a rate of national growth will continue. Its continuance for
so long a period would involve an increase of over forty millions
(40,000,000) between 1920 and 1930, and over fifty-five millions
(55,000,000) between 1930 and 1940. It seems more reasonable to expect
a gradual decline in the rate of increase, and that the relation
between this country and Europe will more closely approach an
equilibrium, accompanied or followed by a diminution of the force of
immigration as a factor in our national growth. Immigration in the
past has fluctuated widely. The total number of immigrants landing in
this country for the whole decade closing in 1880, was less than that
for the first five years of the present decade. To what degree the
population of the future will dwell in cities can perhaps best be
foretold by present indications in our own land, or by the conditions
prevailing in more thickly settled nations. Present indications here,
as has been pointed out, suggest a city growth more rapid than that of
the remainder of the population. Among the older nations, the
population of the British Isles may be said to resemble our own most
closely. The population of Great Britain and Ireland in 1881 was
thirty-five millions (35,000,000). More than one-tenth of this
population was contained in London alone. Such an urban population
manifestly sustains itself largely if not chiefly upon the commercial
and maritime importance of the nation containing it, and only to a
minor degree upon the community surrounding it. This condition of
existence may never be as emphatically true of the population about
the port of New York as it is of the population of London, yet it has
always been believed that the final commercial position of our nation
must be one of commanding importance. That belief compels the
inference that the great port of the nation and of the continent must
continue to attract an enormous population. That the present rate of
growth, which adds 30 per cent. to the population of New York, and
more than 40 per cent. to that of Brooklyn, in every ten years, will
endure, need not be expected. The results of a computation upon such a
basis seem incredible, since they call for a population of three
million five hundred thousand (3,500,000) in New York in 1920, and of
two million two hundred thousand (2,200,000) in Brooklyn at the same
time. But we may well believe that in the nation there will be a
gradual approach to the density of population now maintained in older
countries; that this port will hold its place as a general point of
concentration and distribution for the nation, the continent, perhaps
for the world; and that the excess of residence area in and about our
own city over the corresponding area of New York must continue to tell
in our favor, probably with increasing force.

Looking back no further than 1850, and comparing the two cities with
each other, the following table shows their numbers and rate of growth
in the successive decades:

           Population                 Population
           of           Increase      of            Increase
  Years.   New York.    per cent.     Brooklyn.     per cent.

  1850      515,547                     96,838
  1860    05,651         56.2          266,661      175.3
  1870      942,292      16.9          396,099       48.5
  1880    1,206,299      28.0          566,663       43.0

As the present Twenty-sixth Ward of Brooklyn was not a part of the
city in 1880, a comparison of the population of Brooklyn, as the city
is now constituted, with the population of the City of New York would
be as follows:

The figures for 1888 for both cities are estimated on the basis
already stated.

                    Increase               Increase
  Year.  New York.  per cent.   Brooklyn.  per cent.

  1880   1,206,299              580,318
  1888   1,585,529              782,221
         ---------               -------
           379,230    23.9      201,903      34.7
                    3 pr. cent.          4.3 pr. cent.
                    per year.              per year.

The records of the Building Department aid in testing the estimates
already submitted, and more strikingly in disclosing the character of
the population now coming to us. During the twelve months ending on
November 30 of this year, 4,226 permits were granted for buildings of
all varieties, estimated by their projectors to cost $22,377,825. The
estimated value of this proposed construction has not been exceeded
during any similar period in the City's history. The buildings of a
residence description were to furnish accommodation for 10,457
families. Not every building for which a permit is issued is
afterwards completed, but the magnitude of the volume of the business
of this department--even after making all reasonable deductions for
the plans not carried out--at least justifies all that has been said
thus far concerning the City's present proportions and rate of
progress. The United States census of 1880 declared the City's
population of 566,663 to be contained in 115,076 families; thus fixing
the average membership of each family at 4.92. It is hardly credible
therefore that the permits issued for residence purposes during the
past year represent the City's actual growth during any given period
of twelve months. If families now average as then, these permits would
furnish homes for more than 51,000 souls--a number, to my mind, in
excess of the City's yearly growth. We must, therefore, assume that
there is some discrepancy between the methods of designation employed
in 1880 by the United States officials and those of the building
department, or that the average number of persons in each family is
now less than in 1880, or that these permits represent more than the
actual needs of the period during which they were granted. Probably
the last supposition is best founded. Like New York, the City may have
been overbuilt during the past two or three years, and this record, no
doubt, exhibits some permits not acted upon and some construction due
to the impetus of the speculative ardor of 1885, 1886, and 1887. This
view is confirmed by the statement of the number and cost of the
buildings actually completed during the calendar years 1886 and 1887,
and the first eleven months of the present year.

  Year.            No. of Buildings.  Estimated Cost.
  1886.                 3,990.          $20,318,485.
  1887.                 3,875.           18,008,325.
  1888 to Dec. 1.       3,155.           15,711,070.

While these figures, together with the record of the twelve months
ending upon November 30, 1888, as already given, can not, from their
nature, lead to a precise mathematical conclusion, they indicate most
clearly a degree of activity in construction in which a slight decline
in rapidity might be a cause for congratulation rather than for
regret. The substantial prosperity of the City was at one time
threatened by the over-speculative temper of builders. Conservative
witnesses now think that the normal relation of supply and demand has
been partially restored. The interests of labor are directly concerned
to avoid premature and forced development in so important an industry.
Those who lend upon real estate security, and all who deposit in
savings banks which make such loans, are not less concerned that our
growth should represent the response to actual demand, and not
inconsiderate and headlong enterprise.

Further analysis of the permits issued during the twelve months ending
November 30, 1888, is of interest.

Of the 10,457 families for whose accommodation residence permits were
issued, nineteen were to live in factories, stables, shops, or
business offices, three thousand six hundred and seventy-two (3,672),
were to live in 1,011 flats, to be erected at the estimated cost of
$4,903,513. The average investment of capital to furnish a home for
each of these families would seem to be $1,338, _plus_ the cost of the
land. 2,456 families were to live in 713 buildings described as flats
and stores, to be erected at a cost of $4,303,784, calling for an
average investment for each family of $1,752 less the cost of the
store, _plus_ the cost of land. It may be safely stated that the
distinction between these two variety of residences is in general not
great. If, therefore, we call the average cost of the flat the same in
each case, $1,338, _plus_ the cost of the land, we shall not be far
wrong. Neither do we err much if the value of the land is estimated to
be one-third that of the building. It would thus appear that 6,128
families were to be given homes representing on the average an
investment of $1,784. The owner of such property would probably demand
$175 per year average rental, and since rent may be reckoned as
forming one-fourth of the cost of living with these families, it would
follow that the 6,128 families now under consideration should possess
an average income of $650 or $700. This body of inhabitants forms a
full six-tenths of the growth of the City as the builders anticipated
it.

The next most important element in that growth consists of (3,055)
three thousand and fifty-five families who are to occupy 505
tenements, to be constructed at a cost of $2,629,026, the average
investment to provide a home for each family in this case being $806,
_plus_ the cost of the land. Allow one-third as before to this
latter item, and the cost of each home becomes $1,075. Assume $120 to
be the average rent asked for such dwelling places, and it would
appear that these 3,055 families do not command an average income in
excess of $450. These families form three-tenths of the City's growth
for a year as foreseen by its builders. Thus, nine-tenths of the
expected increase has been classified with a reasonable approximation
to accuracy. The averages thus far submitted are not likely to be
seriously misleading, since they represent varieties of construction
and modes of life in which a uniform type is closely followed. Among
those inhabitants composing the remaining tenth, incomes cover a wider
range, but a comprehensive view even of these is by no means
unprofitable. For 1,168 families the same number of private dwellings
were built, costing $4,660,388, the average cost of each dwelling
being $4,000. In order that these averages might not be misleading,
the Commissioner of Buildings has, at my request, examined every
permit issued by him during the year, and has arranged them upon
certain suggestive bases of classification. This last group of 1,168
families includes no permits for private dwellings whose construction
cost over $10,000. The average cost of dwellings costing less than
$10,000 each, occupied by one family is, therefore, $4,000. While this
figure represents the average cost of dwellings of this class, it
would appear that the actual cost of the greater number of these
dwellings was considerably less than the average. Otherwise the
average would not have been drawn to a point so far below the maximum
cost of $10,000. These 1,168 families may be safely assumed to stand
upon lots worth one-third of their cost. Thus, these 1,168 dwellings
are to dwell in homes representing an average investment of $5,333.
Upon the basis of computation before employed the income of these
families should average not far from $2,000 per year. In fact, for
reasons just suggested, these incomes range from a minimum of $1,000
or less to a maximum rarely exceeding $5,000 or $6,000. And a greater
number of these incomes undoubtedly falls below the average point of
$2,000. Perhaps the greater number would be found to be not far from
$1,500.

There remain 87 families, for whom 87 private dwellings, each costing
$10,000 or more, as estimated, were to be constructed. The aggregate
value of these dwellings is $1,135,500. The average value is $13,000.
Since the average rises so slightly above the minimum, it is clear
that but few dwellings costing much more than $10,000 were to be
constructed. The detailed report of the Commissioner mentions but
three residences of high cost to be built respectively for $35,000,
$40,000 and $50,000. These 87 families represent an average investment
for both the land and the house of $17,333. An attempt to average the
income of this class would be attended with less success than in any
of the prior instances. The minimum cost of living for a family
dwelling in one of these residences would not be far from $6,000.
Doubtless but a few of them spend as small a sum as this in a year.

The surmise that in some of its features building has been overdone is
apparently verified by a study of the remaining permits. The 63
factories costing $579,580, and the 158 shops costing $121,445 call
for so small a part of such a population as would be contained in the
flats and tenements to be constructed, that we must believe that some
of these latter will not be occupied at once. This conclusion accords
with observation. At the same time the general magnitude of this sort
of construction indicates the operation of those causes already spoken
of which embarrass the growth of New York and promote the growth of
Brooklyn. Manifestly the tenants of these numerous flats and the 1,168
families who are to dwell in the more modest residences belonging in
part at least to the class which will not live in lower New York and
which cannot endure the journey to the region above One Hundred and
Tenth street.

For the twelve months ending November 30th, 1887, permits were issued
for 4,246 buildings, to cost $19,983,414. Among these are found
dwellings for 9,585 families. Of these families, 2,856 are to dwell in
922 flats costing $3,978,592, the average investment for each family
being $1,390 as against $1,338 in 1888. Two thousand eight hundred and
sixty-eight families are to dwell in buildings described as stores and
flats, numbering 714, and costing $4,838,938, the average investment
for each family being $1,691 as against $1,752 in 1888. Two thousand
three hundred and ninety-one families are to dwell in 377 tenements
costing $1,879,001, the average investment for a family being $785 as
against $806 in 1884. There remain 1,372 families who are to dwell in
the same number of dwellings, each costing less than $10,000, and the
aggregate cost being $5,320,607, the average cost per family being
$3,877, as against $4,000 in 1888. Finally, there are 97 families
provided for by the same number of residences, each costing over
$10,000, and costing in the aggregate $1,197,400, or on the average
$12,344 as against $13,000 in 1888.

It will be noted that a general survey of these twelve months is
decidedly like that for the twelve months ending upon November 30th,
1888.

Since December 1, 1886, therefore, permits have been issued for the
accommodation of 20,042 families The conclusion hinted at early in
this message that present rate of growth of this city is in excess of
25,000 per year is more than supported by these figures.

The conclusions thus arrived at as to the present and future of
Brooklyn are reinforced by observation of the life of the people as it
ebbs and flows about us. Closer union with New York has--to put it
paradoxically--removed us further from New York. The increased
population, whose growth is undoubtedly stimulated by improved
transit, consumes such a volume of home supplies that our local
business has vastly augmented and varied. The tendency to visit New
York for every sort of purpose declines. Closer alliance with New York
means a more discriminating alliance and less general indiscriminate
dependence on that city. This must ever be the rule of growth in great
communities. It is the rule of national growth. Of the products of the
West some must be shipped in undiminished bulk, but even these are so
handled that a small room in New York suffices to accommodate enough
buyers and sellers to dispose in one day of a year's crop. Other forms
of product reach the East for consumption or export in a concentrated
form. By the natural law of growth the process of concentration is
constantly moving Westward in its place of performance to intercept
the raw material at a point as near as possible to that of its
production. Similar laws apply to New York and Brooklyn with unusual
intensity. Obviously New York must be the clearing house and the site
of the finer and more costly grades of industry. That it cannot be the
abode of large industrial activity demanding bulk or space is not less
clear. Manufacturers who are to occupy much of the earth's surface, or
whose products are bulky, must establish themselves elsewhere. Some of
them must and will come to Brooklyn, and the population growing up
about them will hereafter depend less and less upon New York for any
except the finer bonds of relation which unify the diverse purposes
and interests clustering around our majestic bay.

It has seemed best to dwell upon this topic of the City's present
magnitude and general condition. Such a study of the people can hardly
fail to enlighten those who conduct their affairs, or to arouse and
stimulate a collective and aggressive public spirit, and a sentiment
of just local pride, such as become a great community. Few revelations
of the future are as clear as that the commanding, if not the
overwhelming problems of politics, are to spring hereafter from such
communities. The necessities of compact and highly-organized bodies of
people; the vast private enterprises, as well as public works, which
must minister to their daily wants; the stress of industrial
competition among them; the pressure of class upon class; the jarring
of interest upon interest; the demand for comprehensive, honest and
far-sighted administration of their public affairs; the absolute need
to maintain order upon its established foundations; the fierce
contentions and uneasy vitality which accompany hasty or irregular
municipal growth; these and other features of city life, suggests much
food for thought for the present and approaching generation of
Americans. Since cities are to be so great a factor as well as so
great a product in our material expansion, it follows that the
government of cities is the one quarter of the political field in
which American institutions must not fail; for if popular
self-government fails there it fails at the heart, at the centre and
source of vital and nervous power. In cities, therefore, are to be met
those trials whose issue will determine in what characters the later
pages of American history are to be inscribed. To designate great
cities as an evil, or as a peril, is to note but half their
significance. If men, when massed together, are accessible to evil
suggestions they are likewise accessible to that which is good. At all
events, the problem is not obscure or hard to find. One might go
farther and say that in the question of the future of our cities is
involved more even than the destiny of popular self-government. It
involves the success or the failure of all the agencies of progress
and of enlightenment. The moral and spiritual interests of the people
cannot be separated from those which fall within the scope of
governmental influence. Moreover, these great populations will not
remain at rest either materially or otherwise. Their condition will be
one of advancement or of progressive demoralization and decay.

In its practical suggestions such information as is given by these
statistics is of much value. In earlier days the forecasts of coming
greatness were not and could not be accompanied by material provision
for the future. They formed no basis for definite concrete policy.
To-day the situation is changed. The vision of an approaching
multitude casts before it the shadow of responsibility. Their
well-being must be made secure. Nor is this obligation remote or of
little present moment. Already our numbers and rank place us among the
great, advanced and interesting communities of the civilized world. On
the continent of Europe there can be found but six cities more
populous than our own. The British Isles contain but one. Our place is
surpassed only by that of the capitals of the great powers. What is
done now, therefore, by way of provision for the Brooklyn of to-day as
well as for the Brooklyn of the future, should be done in a manner
befitting the character and needs of a numerous, permanent and
expanding population. Heretofore the public works not less than the
private enterprises of our countrymen have often been experimental and
insufficient. Even those who dimly foresaw the magnitude of the future
dared not prepare for all that seemed to them probable. Hence the
varieties of effort to supply the people have usually proved
inadequate. Demand has speedily overtaken the new methods of supply.
There is more than one reason why this has been true. Not infrequently
the means with which to make adequate provision did not exist. Often
the drift of population or the general desire for some new product or
convenience has set all previous calculations at defiance. In public
matters the necessity of submitting large propositions to minds not
familiar with them has operated to the public disadvantage. Such a
project as the Erie Canal or the Brooklyn Bridge is denounced for
years as wild and extravagant. When completed, its capacity may almost
at once be taxed to the utmost. It is now time to recognize that
cities like ours are to be the homes of multitudes for successive
generations--that the battle of civilization, of progress and of all
that gilds the future with the light of hope must be fought out on
this field. Here must be established the broad and sure foundations of
systematic provision for those vital daily needs upon whose
gratification depend comfort, health, contentment and peace of mind.

Neither is there now the excuse that resources are not at hand. Our
credit is second to that of no existing community; the labor of those
dwelling among us is not to be surpassed in intelligent and
conscientious effectiveness; our frugality has produced at least one
good result, for the cost of government to the citizen is less than in
almost any other city. Comprehensive effort and manly determination
alone are needed to begin the task of supplying Brooklyn with what is
due to the city and its visible future. This task does not immediately
involve any gigantic project. Extraordinary outlay, such as attended
the establishment of the Park and the construction of the Bridge, need
not at once be contemplated. Doubtless other bridges will some day be
built--and that day may be nearer than some imagine--but I speak now
only of such general forms of improvement as are necessary to the
prosperity of the whole city. In a previous message I have outlined
one such proposition to your honorable body. In other communications I
shall complete the list.

Respectfully,

ALFRED C. CHAPIN,

Mayor.






End of Project Gutenberg's The Future of Brooklyn, by Alfred C. Chapin