E-text prepared by Al Haines



THE AUDACIOUS WAR

by

CLARENCE W. BARRON







Boston and New York
Houghton Mifflin Company
The Riverside Press Cambridge
1915
Copyright, 1914 and 1915, by the Boston News Bureau Company
Copyright, 1915, by Clarence W. Barron
All Rights Reserved
Published February 1915

THIRD IMPRESSION




  IF!

  Suppose 't were done!
  The lanyard pulled on every shotted gun;
  Into the wheeling death-clutch sent
  Each millioned armament,
  To grapple there
  On land, on sea and under, and in air!
  Suppose at last 't were come--
  Now, while each bourse and shop and mill is dumb
  And arsenals and dockyards hum,--
  Now all complete, supreme,
  That vast, Satanic dream!--

  Each field were trampled, soaked,
  Each stream dyed, choked,
  Each leaguered city and blockaded port
  Made famine's sport;
  The empty wave
  Made reeling dreadnought's grave;
  Cathedral, castle, gallery, smoking fell
  'Neath bomb and shell;
  In deathlike trance
  Lay industry, finance;
  Two thousand years'
  Bequest, achievement, saving, disappears
  In blood and tears,
  In widowed woe
  That slum and palace equal know,
  In civilization's suicide,--
  What served thereby, what satisfied?
  For justice, freedom, right, what wrought?
  Naught!--

  Save, after the great cataclysm, perhap
  On the world's shaken map
  New lines, more near or far,
  Binding to king or czar
  In festering hate
  Some newly vassaled state;
  And passion, lust and pride made satiate;
  And just a trace
  Of lingering smile on Satan's face!
      --_Boston News Bureau Poet_.


This poem has been called the great poem of the war.  It was written
just preceding the war, and published August 1 by the "Boston News
Bureau."  Of it, and its author, Bartholomew P. Griffin, the following
was written by Rev. Francis G. Peabody: "The English poets, Bridges,
Kipling, Austin, and Noyes, have all tried to meet the need and all
have lamentably failed.  I am proud not only that an American, but that
a Harvard man, should have risen to the occasion."




PREFACE

The Scotch have this proverb: "War brings poverty.  Poverty brings
peace.  Peace brings prosperity.  Prosperity brings pride.  And pride
brings war again."  Shall the world settle down to the faith that there
is no redemption from an everlasting round of pride, war, poverty,
peace, prosperity, pride, and war again?

But it was not primarily to settle, or even study this problem that I
crossed the ocean and the English Channel in winter.  As a journalist
publishing the _Wall Street Journal_, the _Boston News Bureau_, and the
_Philadelphia News Bureau_, and directing news-gathering for the
banking and financial communities, I deemed it my duty to ascertain at
close hand the financial factors in this war, and the financial results
therefrom.

I found myself on the other side, not only in the domain of the finance
encircling this war, but unexpectedly in close touch with diplomatic
and government circles.  The whole of the war, its commercial causes,
its financial and military forces, its tremendous human sacrifices, the
conflicting principles of government, and the world-wide issues
involved, all lay out in clear facts and figures after I had gathered
by day and night from what appeared at first to be a tangled web.

I learned who made this war, and why at this time and for what
purposes, present and prospective; and from facts that could not be set
down categorically in papers of state.  No papers, "white," "gray," or
"yellow," could present a picture of the war in its inception and the
reasons therefor.

There is no powerful organization over nations to keep the peace of
Europe or of the world, as nations are in organization over states, and
states over cities, to insure peace and justice, without strife or
human sacrifice.

The immediate causes of this war, and I believe they have not before
been presented on this side of the ocean, are connected with commercial
treaties, protective tariffs, and financial progress.

It may be wondered that in our country, which is the home of the
protective tariff system and boasts its great prosperity therefrom,
there has been as yet no presentation of the business causes beneath
this war.  Our great journalists are trained to find interesting,
picturesque, and saleable news features from big events.  Details of
war's atrocities and destructions are to most people of the greatest
human interest, and rightly so.  As a country we have no international
policy, and European politics and policies have never interested us.

Germany is buttressed by tariffs and commercial treaties on every side.
Years ago I was told in Europe that the commercial treaties wrested
from France in 1871 were of more value to Germany than the billion
dollars of indemnity she took as her price to quit Paris.  But I did
not realize until I was abroad this winter how European countries had
warred by tariffs, and that Germany and Russia were preparing for a
great clash at arms over the renewal of commercial and tariff treaties
which expire within two years, and which had been forced by Germany
upon Russia during the Japanese War.

German "Kultur" means German progress, commercially and financially.
German progress is by tariffs and commercial treaties.  Her armies, her
arms, and her armaments, are to support this "Kultur" and this progress.

I believe I have told the story as it has never been told before.  But
the facts cannot be drawn forth and properly set in review without some
presentation of the spirit of the peoples of the European nations.

If all the nations of Europe were of one language, the spirit, the soul
of each in its distinctive characteristics might stand out even more
prominently than to-day.

Then we could see even more clearly the spirit of brotherhood and
nationality that stands out resplendent as the soul of France.  We
should see the spirit of empire and of trade, interknit with
administrative justice, as the soul of Great Britain.  We should see
Germany an uncouth giant in the center of Europe, viewing all about him
with suspicion, and demanding to know why, as the youngest, sturdiest,
best organized, and hardest working European nation, he is not entitled
to overseas or world empire.

But few persons on this side have comprehended the relation of this
great war to the greatest commercial prizes in the world; the shores of
the Mediterranean, Asia Minor, with its Bagdad Railroad headed for the
Persian Gulf, Mesopotamia with its great oil-fields, undeveloped and a
source of power for the recreation of Palestine and all the lands
between the Mediterranean, the Indian Ocean, and Asia.

The greatest study for Americans to-day is the spirit of nations as
shown in this war, and great lessons for the United States may be found
in the finance, business, patriotism, and justice that stand forth in
the British Empire as never before.  She is rolling up a tremendous
war-power within her empire and throughout Europe, encircling the
German war-power.  But she is likewise looking to her own people and
her own workers, filling her own factories and every laboring hand to
the full that she may keep her business and profits at home, and with
her business and profits and accumulated capital and income prosecute
the greatest war of history.

She is not unmindful in any respect of what the war may send her way.
In the breaking-away and the breaking-up of Turkey, she sees a clear
field for Egypt, the realization of the dream of Cecil Rhodes of the
development of the whole of Africa by a Cape to Cairo Railroad, and she
sees her own empire and peoples belting the world in power, usefulness,
and justice, and with a sweep and scope for enterprise and development
beyond all the previous dreams of this generation.

The United States, with hundreds of millions of banking reserves
released and giving base for a business expansion double any we have
had before, seems suddenly paralyzed in its business activities and,
comprehending only that the loaf of bread is a cent higher and a pound
of cotton a few cents lower, it is wondering on which side of its bread
the butter is to fall.

Meanwhile, it talks politics, asks if prosperity here is to come during
or after the war; and having little comprehension of the meaning of the
national throbs that on the other side of the globe are pulsating the
world into a new era of light, liberty, and expansion by individual
labor, it refuses to take up its daily home-task and go forward.

In the hope that these pages may be useful to my fellow countrymen in
giving them the facts of this war, its commercial causes, its financial
progress, its sacrifice in humanity,--sacrifice that could not be
demanded but for a greater future,--these papers are taken, as
completed in my financial publications in this month of February, and
placed before the reading community in book form, as requested in
hundreds of personal letters.

They were never conceived or written with any idea of their permanent
preservation.  They were prepared for the banking community, which
demands news-facts and figures discriminatingly presented.  The banker
wants the truth; he will make his own argument and reach his own
conclusions.

The reader will readily see that these chapters are day-to-day issues
aiming to present that news from the standpoint of finance.  But under
all sound finance must be primarily the truth of humanity.  They do not
claim to be from beginning to end a harmonious book-presentation of the
war, but it is believed that they contain the essential fundamental
war-facts; and the aim was to present them in most condensed expression.

They cover the first six months of this most Audacious War.  Whether it
is to continue for another six months or another sixteen months is not
so material as the character of the peace and what is to follow.

No greater problem can be placed before the world than that of how the
peace of nations may be maintained.  Having cleared my own mind upon
this subject, I submit it in the final chapter, which naturally follows
after that treating of the lessons for the United States from this war.

Only in an international organization, with power to make decrees of
peace and enforce them, and with insurance of powers above those of all
dissenters, can we find the peace of nations as we have found the peace
of cities.  This Audacious War has forced such an alliance as can yield
this power.  Its transfer to the support of an International tribunal
can make and keep the peace of Europe and eventually of the world.

Then may the earth cease to be, in history, that steady round of
Prosperity, Pride, and War.

C. W. Barron.

February 15, 1915.




    CONTENTS


    I.  THE WORLD'S GREATEST CONTEST
   II.  TARIFFS AND COMMERCE THE WAR CAUSES
  III.  THE POLITICAL CAUSES OF THE WAR
   IV.  PEACE PROPOSALS
    V.  FRANCE AND THE FRENCH
   VI.  THE POSITION OF FRANCE
  VII.  FRENCH FINANCE
 VIII.  THE BELGIAN SACRIFICE
   IX.  RUSSIA AND THE RUSSIANS
    X.  THE ENGLISH POSITION
   XI.  ENGLISH WAR FORCES
  XII.  ENGLISH WAR FINANCE
 XIII.  GERMAN RESOURCES
  XIV.  IS IT THE PEOPLE'S WAR?
   XV.  THE GERMAN POSITION
  XVI.  THE LESSONS FOR AMERICA
 XVII.  WHAT PEACE SHOULD MEAN




THE AUDACIOUS WAR


CHAPTER I

THE WORLD'S GREATEST CONTEST

The Censorship--The Warship "Audacious"--Mine or Torpedo?--The Battle
Line--War by Gasolene Motors--The Boys from Canada--The Audacity of it.

The war of 1914 is not only the greatest war in history but the
greatest in the political and economic sciences.  Indeed, it is the
greatest war of all the sciences, for it involves all the known
sciences of earth, ocean, and the skies.

To get the military, the political, and especially the financial flavor
of this war, to study its probable duration and its financial
consequences, was the object of a trip to England and France from which
the writer has recently returned.

One can hear "war news" from the time he leaves the American coast and
begins to pick up the line of the British warships--England's far-flung
battle line--until he returns to the dock, but thorough investigation
would convince a trained news man that most of this war gossip is
erroneous.

This war is so vast and wide, from causes so powerful and deep, and
will be so far-reaching in its effects that no ill-considered or
partial statements concerning it should be made by any responsible
writer.

The difficulty of obtaining the exact facts by any ordinary methods is
very great.  There is a strict supervision of all news, and to insure
that by news sources no "aid or comfort" is given to the enemy, a vast
amount of pertinent, legitimate, and harmless news and data is
necessarily suppressed.  The censors are military men and not news men,
and act from the standpoint that a million facts had better be
suppressed than that a single report should be helpful to the enemy.
Only in Russia are reports of news men from the firing line allowed.

One hears abroad continually of the battle of the Marne, of the battle
of the Aisne, of the contest at Ypres, and the fight on the Yser, but
no outside man has yet been permitted to describe any of these in
detail, or to give the strategy, beginning, end, or boundaries of them,
or even the distinct casualties therefrom.  Indeed, it is doubtful if
the official histories, when they are written, can do this, for these
are the emphasized portions of one great and continuous battle that
went on for more than one hundred days.

To illustrate the strength of the hand on the English war news, it may
be noted that there is no mention permitted in the English press of
such a ship as the "Audacious."  Yet American papers with photographs
of the "Audacious" as she sinks in the ocean are sold in London and on
the Continent.  Outside of London not ten per cent of the people know
anything concerning this boat or her finish.

This word "finish" would be disputed in any newspaper or well-informed
financial office in London where it is daily declared that although the
"Audacious" met with an accident, her guns have been raised and will go
aboard another ship of the same size, purchased, or just being
finished, and named the "Audacious."  Indeed, I was informed on "good
authority" that the "Audacious" was afloat, had been towed into
Birkenhead and that the repairs to her bottom were nearly finished.
You can hear similar stories wherever the "accident" is discussed.  I
have heard it so many times that I ought to believe it.  Yet if one
hundred people separately and individually make assurances concerning
something of which they have no personal knowledge, it does not go down
with a true news man.  I was able to run across a man who saw the
affair of the "Audacious."  He laughed at the stories of shallow water
and raised guns.  His position was such, both then and thereafter, that
I was sure that he knew and told me the truth.

Later I learned that the "Audacious" was too far off the Irish coast to
permit of talk of shallow water, and that neither guns nor 30,000-ton
warships are raised from fifty-fathom depths.

Yet I am willing to narrate what has not been permitted publication in
England, and I think not elsewhere: that the mines about Lough Swilly,
along the Scotch and Irish coasts, and in the Irish Sea, were laid with
the assistance of English fishing-boats flying the English flag.  These
boats had been captured by the Germans and impressed into this work.

There are also stories of Irish boats and Norwegian trawlers in this
work, but I secured no confirmation of such reports.

It is still unsettled in British Admiralty circles as to whether the
"Audacious" came in contact with a mine or torpedo from a German
submarine.  Two of her crew report that they saw the wake of a torpedo.
Reports that the periscope of a submarine showed above the water I have
reason to reject.

English reports were suppressed--the admiralty claimed this right,
since there was no loss of life--in the belief that if the ship was
torpedoed by a submarine, the Germans would give out the first report,
and thereby be of assistance in determining the cause.  But to-day the
Germans have their doubt as to where the "Audacious" is, and as to
whether or not she was ever really sunk.

Expert opinion is divided in authoritative circles in England as to the
cause of the disaster; but more than 400 mines have been swept up along
the Irish and Scotch coasts by the English mine sweepers.

While upon this subject, I ought to narrate that the study of this
topic has convinced me that the Germans have a long task if they hope
within a reasonable number of months to reduce by submarine torpedo
practice the efficiency of the English navy to a basis that will
warrant German warships coming forth to battle.

Every battleship is protected by four destroyers.  Submarines, when
detected, are the most easily destroyed craft.  They have no protection
against even a well-directed rifle bullet.  Their whole protection is
that of invisibility.  Their plan of operation is to reach a position
during the night, whence in the early morning they can single out an
unprotected warship or cruiser not in motion, and launch against her
side a well-directed torpedo, before being discovered.

The place for England's battleships is where they are: in the harbors
with their protecting nets down until they are called for in battle.
In motion or action, submarines have little show against them.

The Japanese at Port Arthur found that protecting nets picked up many
torpedoes and submarines.  Since that time, torpedoes have been made
with cutting heads to pierce steel nets encircling the warships, but
their effectiveness has not so far been practically demonstrated.

It is Kitchener's idea to keep the enemy guessing.  Therefore he was
rather pleased than otherwise when the story of Russians coming through
England from Archangel was told all over the world.  The War Office
winked at the story and certainly had no objection to the Germans
getting a good dose of it.  I think that story might have been helpful
at the time when the Allies were at their weakest, but they do not now
need Russians, or stories of Russians, from Archangel.

The story must also go by the board that a submarine north of Ireland
meant either a new type of boat that could go so far from Germany, or
an unknown base nearer Scotland.

Submarines as now built could go from Germany around the British Isles
and then across the Atlantic--in fair weather.

The eastern boundary of France divides itself into four very nearly
equal sections.  Italy and Switzerland are the lower quarters of this
boundary line; and of the upper quarters Belgium is the larger and
Germany the smaller.  The southern half of the German quarter boundary
is a mountain range and on the open sections stand the great
fortifications of France and Germany, regarded by both countries as
practically impregnable.  The defence of France on the Belgian frontier
was the treaty which guaranteed the neutrality of the smaller country.

When Germany's conquering hosts came through Belgium, the war soon
became a battle of human beings rather than of fortifications.  Neither
the French nor the Germans had learned from practical experience the
modern art of fighting human legions in ground trenches, but both sides
quickly betook themselves to this rabbit method of warfare.

To-day from Switzerland to the North Sea is a double wall of 4,000,000
men, all fighting, not only for their own existence but for the
existence of their nationality--their national ideals.  They are
protected by aeroplanes, flying above, that keep watch of any large
movements.

They are backed by 4,000,000 men in reserve and training who keep the
trenches filled with fighting men, as 10,000 to 20,000 daily retire to
mother earth, to the hospitals, or to the camps of the imprisoned.  On
the North Sea and the English Channel they are supported by fleets of
battleships, cruisers, submarines, and torpedo boat destroyers that
occasionally "scrap" with each other, the German boats now and then
attacking the English coast and harbors and the English boats now and
then assisting to mow down the German troops when they approach too
near the coast.  But the great dread and key to this naval warfare is
the modern submarine.

Submarines, aeroplanes, and motor busses are three elements of warfare
never before put to the test; and the greatest of these thus far is the
gasolene motor-car.  By this alone Germany may be defeated.  France and
England are rich in gasolene motor power, and supplies from America are
open to them.  A year ago there were less than 90,000 motor-cars in
Germany, and Prince Henry started to encourage motoring to remedy this,
but the Germans are slow to respond in sport.  Indeed they know little
of sport as the English understand it, of sportsman ethics or the sense
of fair play in either sport or war.  They do not comprehend the
English applause for the captain of the "Emden" and stand aghast at the
idea that he would be received as a hero in England.  When a daring
aeroplane flier in the performance of his duty has met with mishap and,
landed on German soil, he is not welcomed as a hero.  He is struck and
kicked.

The German is not to be blamed.  It is the way he has been educated to
"assert himself," as the Germans phrase it.  Indeed, when the captain
of the "Emden" was taken prisoner and was congratulated by the
Australian commander for his gallant defense, he was so taken aback
that he had to walk away and think it over.  He returned to thank his
adversary for his complimentary remarks.  With true German scientific
instinct he had to find his defeat in a physical cause, remarking, "It
was fortunate for you that your first shot took away my speaking tubes."

The English are sports in war,--too sporty in fact.  General Joffre
warned General French over and over again, "Your officers are too
audacious; you will soon have none to command," and his words proved
true.  The English officers felt that the rules of the game called upon
them to lead their men.  They became targets for the guns of the foe,
until one of the present embarrassments in England is the unprecedented
loss of officers.

This has now been changed and Kitchener insists that both officers and
men shall regard themselves as property of the Empire, that the
exposure of a single life to unnecessary hazard is a breach of
discipline.  For this reason Victoria Crosses are not numerous, less
than two dozen having been conferred thus far; and it has been quietly
announced that no Victoria Crosses will be conferred for single acts of
bravery or where only one life is involved.  It must be team work and
results affecting many.

For this reason also it has been decreed that the 33,000 Canadians in
training at Salisbury Plain shall not be put in the front until they
have learned discipline in place of the American initiative.

These Canadian boys receive their home pay of four shillings, or $1 per
day, while the English Tommy gets one quarter of this amount.  The
Canadians are fine fellows, feeling their independence and anxious to
be on the firing line, but the War Office recognizes that soldierly
independence cannot be allowed in this war.  It is not improbable that
the Canadian troops will eventually be dispersed that their strong
individual initiative may be thoroughly harnessed under the
organization before they are trusted in the trenches.  They are not to
be permitted to go there to be shot at, but to use their splendid
physiques, fighting abilities, and patriotism--more British than the
English themselves--in strict organization.

This is not to be an audacious war on the part of the Allies.  It is
first a defensive war in which the Germans are the heaviest losers.  On
the part of the Germans it is an audacious war and its very audacity
has astounded the whole world.  But Germany never meant to war against
the world collectively.  That was the accident of her bad diplomacy.

The audaciousness of Prussian war conceptions began in the latter part
of the last century.  They did not grow out of the war with the French
in 1870, for Bismarck's legacy to the German nation was a warning
against any war with Russia.  The German scheme was concocted by the
successor of Bismarck himself, none other than Kaiser William II.  He
planned a steady growth of German power that would first vanquish the
Slav of southeastern Europe and give Germany control through
Constantinople and Asia Minor to the Persian gulf; then, as opportunity
arose, a crushing of France and repression of Russia; and the overthrow
of the British empire; and then the end of the Monroe Doctrine, to be
followed by American tariffs dictated from Germany.

This seems so audacious a program as to be almost beyond comprehension
in America.  Yet it will be made clear in the next chapter.




CHAPTER II

TARIFFS AND COMMERCE THE WAR CAUSES

War with Russia was Inevitable--Finance and Tariffs made Germany
great--Commercial War--How Germany loses in the United States--The
Tariff Danger.


For the causes of this most audacious war of 1914 one must study, not
only Germany and her imperial policy, but most particularly her
relations with Russia.  These relations are very little understood in
America, but they become vital to us when open to public view.

Disregarding all the counsels of Bismarck and the previous reigning
Hohenzollerns, the present Kaiser has steadily offended Russia.  War
with her within two years was inevitable, irrespective of any causes in
relation to Servia.  Russia knew this and was diligently preparing for
it.  Germany--the war party of Germany--knew it and with supreme
audacity determined through Austria first to smash Servia and put the
Balkan States and Turkey in alignment with herself for this coming war
with Russia.

Sergius Witte is one of the great statesmen of Russia.  He formulated
the programme for the Siberian railroad and Russian Asiatic
development.  The party of nobles opposed to him arranged that he
should receive the humiliation of an ignoble peace with Japan, under
which it was expected that Russia would have to pay a huge indemnity.

But when Witte arrived at the naval station at Portsmouth, New
Hampshire, to make the famous treaty with Japan, his first declaration
was, "Not one kopeck for indemnity."  He won out and returned in
triumph to Russia.

But during the progress of the Japanese war Germany thrust her
commercial treaties upon St. Petersburg.  Goods from Russia into
Germany were taxed while German goods went under favorable terms into
Russia, with the result that Russia has had a struggle now for ten
years to keep her gold basis and her financial exchanges.

It was Witte who was sent to Berlin to protest against these proposed
treaties and secure more favorable terms.  Witte made his protest and
refused to accept the German demands.  Then suddenly he received
peremptory orders from the Czar to grant all the demands of Germany.
The Czar declared Russia was in no condition to have trouble with
Germany.  These commercial treaties expire within two years.  Russia
many months back proposed the discussion of new terms.  Germany
responded that the present treaties were satisfactory to her and he
should call for their renewal.

This meant either further humiliation to Russia or war.  Russia had
already suffered the affront of being forced by Germany at the point of
the bayonet to assent to the taking by Austria of Bosnia and
Herzegovina in violation of the Treaty of Berlin.  The Czar realized
many months ago that Russia must now fight for her commercial life.
She would not, however, be ready for the war until 1916.

Let Americans consider what this means--a German war over commercial
tariffs--and see what, if successful in Europe, it would lead to.

The German nation is a fighting unit under the dominion of Prussia, the
greatest war state, not only of the empire, but of the world.  Having
welded Germany by the Franco-Prussian war into a nation with unified
tariffs, transportation, currency, and monetary systems, Prussia has
been able to point to the war as the cause of the phenomenal prosperity
of Germany.

It is a popular fallacy in Germany that militarism makes the greatness
of a nation.  Germany's prosperity did not begin with the war of 1870.
This was only the beginning of German unity which made possible unified
transportation and later unified finances and tariffs.  Several years
after the war, France, which had paid an indemnity to Germany of a
thousand million dollars, or five billion francs, was found, to the
astonishment of Bismarck, more prosperous than Germany which had thus
received the expenses of her military campaign and a dot of Spandau
Tower war-reserve moneys.

In 1875 came the great Reichsbank Act, which consolidated all the
banking power of the empire.  Then came her scientific tariffs which
put up the bars here, and let them down there, according as Germany
needed export or import trade in any quarter of the earth.  The German
people, on a soil poorer than that of France, worked hard and long
hours for small wages.  But they worked scientifically and under the
most intelligent protective tariff the world has ever seen.  In a
generation they built up a foreign trade surpassing that of the United
States and reaching $4,500,000,000 per annum.  By her rate of progress
she was on the way to distance England, whose ports and business were
open to her merchants without even the full English income tax.  She
built the biggest passenger steamers ever conceived of and reached for
the freight carrying trade of the world.  She mined in coal and iron
and built solidly of brick and stone.  She put the world under tribute
to her cheap and scientific chemistry.  She dug from great depths the
only potash mines in the world and from half this potash she fertilized
her soil until it laughed with abundant harvests.

The other half she sold outside so that her own potash stood her free
and a profit besides.  No nation ever recorded the progress that
Germany made after the inauguration of her bank act and her scientific
tariffs.  The government permitted no waste of labor, no
disorganization of industry.  Capital and labor could each combine, but
there must be no prolonged strikes, no waste, no loss; they must work
harmoniously together and for the upbuilding of the empire.

Germany did not want war except as means to an end.  She wanted the
fruits of her industry.  She wanted her people, her trade, and her
commerce to expand over the surface of the earth, but to be still
German and to bring home the fruit of German industry.

Germany has been at war--commercial war--with the whole world now for a
generation, and in this warfare she has triumphed.  Her enterprise, her
industry, and her merchants have spread themselves over the surface of
the earth to a degree little realized until her diplomacy again slipped
and the present war followed--such a war as was planned for by nobody
and not expected even by herself.  She was giving long credits and
dominating the trade of South America.  She had given free trade
England a fright by the stamp, "Made in Germany."  She was pushing
forward through Poland into Russia to the extent that her merchants
dominated Warsaw and were spreading out even over the Siberian
railroad.  Her finance was intertwined with that of London and Paris.

In the United States she was the greatest loser.  Here taxes were
lowest and freedom greatest.  German blood flowed in the veins of
20,000,000 Americans and not one fourth of them could she call her own.
The biggest newspaper publisher in America, William Randolph Hearst,
figured that New York was one of the big German cities of the world.
He turned his giant presses to capture the German sentiment.  He spent
tens of thousands of dollars upon German cable news, devoting at times
a whole page to cable presentations from Europe which he thought would
interest Germans.  But the investment proved fruitless; he found there
was in America no German sentiment such as he had reckoned upon.  He
could not increase his circulation, for the German-Americans seemed
little concerned as to what happened in Berlin or Bavaria.

Prussia learned what Hearst learned, that Germans were soon lost in the
United States.  She studied this exodus and the wage question and by
various arts and organizations arrested the German emigration to
America.  She saw to it that employment at home was more stable.  It
was figured that if the German emigration could be centralized under
the German eagle it would be to her advantage.  The question was where
to get land that could be made German.  Europe has for some years
expected a German dash in Patagonia, and the Europeans outside of
Germany have taken very kindly of late years to the Monroe Doctrine.
In Africa and the islands of the sea the German colonial policy has not
been a success.  Dr. Dernburg as colonial secretary has many a time
stood up in the Reichstag and warned the Germans that the home military
system and rules were not adaptable to colonization in foreign parts;
that Germans must adapt themselves to foreign countries and not attempt
at first to make their manners the standard in the colonies they
undertook to dominate.

While German colonies have not yet passed beyond the experimental
stage, German tariffs and German commerce have been great successes.

The population of Russia is 166,000,000 people.  This is the latest
figure I gathered from those intimate with the government at St.
Petersburg.  This is just 100,000,000 more than Germany.  Germany
thinks she must trade to her own advantage with the people now crowding
her eastern border.

The example of America in putting up tariff bars against "Made in
Germany" has many advocates in England and in the rest of the world.

When France, only a few years ago, was angered that Italy should sign
up in "triple alliance" with Austria and Germany, she did not dare to
attack Italy with arms, but she did attack Italy by tariff measures,
and for a time Italy and France fought--by tariffs.

What might be the position of Germany if the American protective tariff
system were expanded over the earth?  In the view of some people
tariffs, taxation, and armaments go hand in hand.  There is a town in
Prussia that finished payment only twenty years ago on the indemnity
Napoleon exacted from it.

Can a country afford to develop an industrial system dependent upon an
outside world and then suddenly find the outside world closed by tariff
barriers?

When an American ambassador protested against Bismarck's discriminatory
treatment of American pork, the great chancellor asked, "What have you
to talk with?  You have no army or navy."  "No," said the American
ambassador, "but we have the ability to build them as big as anybody.
Do you wish to tempt us?"  "No," said the German chancellor, "and your
goods shall not be discriminated against."

Dr. Dernburg has given the key to the German colonial military, tariff,
and financial policy.  German unity in tariffs and transportation has
made German prosperity, and Dr. Dernburg, her former colonial secretary
and now in New York, says the mouth of the Rhine and the channel ports
must be free to Germany and that Belgium must come into tariff and
transportation union with Germany.  Belgium is being taxed, tariffed,
pounded, and impounded into the German empire.

There is some difference in size between Belgium and Russia, but no
difference in principle with respect to their German relations.

"World power or downfall," Bernhardi put it.




CHAPTER III

THE POLITICAL CAUSES OF THE WAR

A State with no Morals--A Peace Treaty sundered--Where Germany fails--A
Thunderbolt.


Sending his little expedition to China the Kaiser said:--

"When you encounter the enemy you will defeat him; no quarter shall be
given, no prisoners shall be taken.  Let all who fall into your hands
be at your mercy.  Just as the Huns one thousand years ago, under the
leadership of Attila, gained a reputation in virtue of which they still
live in historical tradition, so may the name of Germany become known
in such a manner in China that no Chinaman will ever again dare to look
askance at a German."

Belgium was made an example of.  According to the German idea she
should have accepted money and not stood in the way of German progress.

German military progress is allied with German commercial progress.  It
is a mistake in the conception of Germany to imagine that she wars for
the purpose of war or for the development and training of her men.

The first principle of German "Kultur" as respects the state is that
the sole business of the government is to advance the interests of the
state.  No laws having been formulated in respect to the business of a
state, the government is without moral responsibility, and the laws
applicable to individual action do not apply to the state.  Individuals
may do wrong, but the state cannot do wrong.  Individuals may steal and
be punished therefor, but the state cannot steal.  It is its business
to expand and to appropriate.  Individuals may murder and be punished
for the crime, but it is the business of the state to kill for state
development or progress.

The English-speaking conception of morality is that what applies to an
individual in a community applies to the aggregate of the individuals,
that the state is only the aggregate of the individuals exercising the
natural human functions of government for law and order.

This is entirely outside the German conception.  In the German
conception a government comes down from above and not up from the
people.  It is not the people who rule or govern, but the government
from above rules the people, and the people must implicitly follow and
obey; thus is national progress and human progress.  The whole of
Germany believes in the government of the Kaiser: that law and war flow
down through him and that neither can be questioned by the individual.
Obedience, union, efficiency, progress, and progress through war, if
necessary, are cardinal virtues.

Germany does not desire war with Russia, but German progress requires
the continuance of present tariff relations, and if war is a means to
that desirable end, war is divine.

The murder of the Crown Prince of Austria was an incident furnishing
Germany and Austria opportunity to carry out their long-conceived
programme for the extension of their influence through the growing
state of Servia.

A treaty had been arranged between Greece and Turkey, and was to have
been signed in July, which would have settled many things in respect to
Turkey and the Balkan states.  Roumania and Servia were in agreement
concerning this great measure for peace in southeastern Europe.

When all was ready for the final conference and the signatures, Austria
intervened and announced her opposition.  Then suddenly followed the
bombshell of the ultimatum to Servia, timed at the precise moment to
stop the signing of this Turkish treaty.

Austrian officials admitted privately as follows, and I have it
directly from parties to the negotiations:--

"We are satisfied that Servia would punish the murderers of Prince
Ferdinand if we so requested.  We are satisfied she would apologize to
Austria if we requested it.  But our aims go beyond.  We demand that
instead of the proposed Turkish treaty the Balkan states shall come
into union with Turkey under the influence of Austria.  To accomplish
this we must accept no apology, but must punish Servia.  We are
satisfied that Russia is in no financial or military position to
interfere."

Germany with its enormous spy system had secured copies of the
confidential state papers of the Czar and transmitted them to Vienna.
In these were warnings, statistics, and compilations showing all the
financial and military weaknesses of Russia: that her great gold
reserve had been largely loaned out and was not available cash on hand,
as the world had been led to believe; that it would take eighteen
months more of preparation to place her military forces in position to
defend the country; that her arms and the factories to build them were
not ready.

The plans of Austria and Germany were to line up the Balkan states,
under German political and trade influences, and then within two years
to have it out with Russia and again impose the German tariffs upon
her.  If France dared to come in, it would certainly be an attack, and
Italy would, under the Triple Alliance, assist to defend Austria and
Germany.  Defeating Russia, Germany could, at that time or later, crush
France in the manner in which Bismarck had said she might eventually be
crushed by Germany for Germany's progress.

Then, having made more onerous tariff treaties with France than were
exacted from her in 1870 and having extended German trade and military
influence over Russia, Germany would be in a position with her navy to
try out the long desired issue with Great Britain for the control of
the seas.

Admiral Von Tirpitz told the emperor that it must be at least two years
more before the German navy would be able to try conclusions with
England.

The German plan was to take the European countries one at a time.  The
German information was that every country except Germany was
unprepared, and that information was true.  She was fully prepared
except in her navy.

One of the leaders among those great business Lords of England, who sit
with the Commoners in business, but in the House of Lords as respects
legislation, said to me when I spoke of the wonderful intelligence of
Germany in research and data, scientific and political: "But, don't you
think that the Germans had too much information and too little
judgment?"

In other words, they had a stomach full of facts but no capacity to
digest them.  They knew as much about Ulster and perhaps more than
London as respects facts and detailed information, but they were in no
position to pass judgment upon Ulster or the unity of the British
Empire the moment there was an attack from the outside.  The Germans
have dealt in materialistic facts.  But with the spirit that moulds and
makes history they are all awry.  With the Germans, individuals are
units and are counted from the outside, never from the inside.  That is
why her diplomacy is not only a failure, but offensive: it never
differentiates among nations and peoples according to that which is
within the mind and the heart of the people.

The German Emperor directed the Austrian ultimatum to Servia, insisting
upon stronger demands than were at first proposed.  Then, turning his
back upon the scene, he was able to protest that he was not
responsible.  Yet the published correspondence from every capital in
Europe now shows that the German Emperor fenced off every attempt to
get Austria to modify or postpone or discuss her demands.  Germany was
ready for everything except the interference of Great Britain.

A private telephone rang at five o'clock one morning in Berlin and an
American lady was informed from a social quarter that "Something
dreadful has happened."  "Something awful--something undreamed of."
The American lady quickly asked, "Has the Kaiser been assassinated?" as
the tone over the telephone indicated nothing less.

The response was, "England has declared war!"

That was the most unlooked-for step in all the German calculations.

Every spy report, every diplomatic agency, military and civil, had
reported that England was out of the running: Ireland in revolution,
India in sedition, Canada, Australia, and South Africa just ready to
break away from the British yoke.

The conception of the British empire as a federation of free peoples
governing themselves, under a constitutional monarchy, is something
incomprehensible in the German idea of government.  The German idea is
of colonies attached to and paying tribute to the crown, something to
be ruled over, governed, taxed, and made to serve.

Russia might go to war exposing in the field her weakness already
spread out on paper by Russian authorities, with copies in Vienna and
Berlin; but that England or Great Britain could or would fight at this
time was an impossibility; although later England was to become "The
vassal of Germany."

And the wonderment of Germany has become the wonderment of the world.
"Roll up," said Kitchener, and 2,000,000 men sprang to arms.  More than
800,000 of them are on the Continent; 1,700,000 of them are in training.

"Roll up," said Lloyd George, the Chancellor of the British Exchequer;
and $1,700,000,000 of war loan is rolling into the British Treasury, a
sum one half the national debt of England and nearly twice the national
debt of the United States.

If necessary, the number of men in arms will be doubled to 4,000,000
and the enormous subscription just made to England's war loan will be
doubled and quadrupled.

The life of the empire as respects money and men is at stake, and no
sacrifice is too great.  If treaties are "scraps of paper" and neutral
states are to have no rights or protection, there is no safety in the
world, no sacredness of contracts; the world is at an end and chaos
reigns.




CHAPTER IV

PEACE PROPOSALS

The Bagdad Railroad--The English Oil Concession--The German Alliance
with Turkey--Austria the Hand of Germany--The Decay of Turkey--The New
Map.


How ridiculous are American peace proposals concerning the Audacious
War of 1914 may be judged from this announcement which I am able to
make:--

The return of the French government from Bordeaux to Paris was
determined upon from two points of view: safety and political
necessity.  The French people were angered that Paris should have been
deserted, but notwithstanding the political reasons, which were more
forceful than the public will be permitted to know, the return would
not have been undertaken had not the military authorities considered
the move a safe one.  How safe will be evidenced by this--that at both
Bordeaux and Paris this problem was before the authorities: "Events
have now progressed so far that it is time for the Allies to consider
what will be their terms of peace.  These terms must be divided into
many classes, ranging from those in which only one of the Allies has an
interest to those in which all have an interest.  Of course, the latter
will be the most complex, and it is time now to begin with the
complexities of the most far-reaching situation.  This is Mesopotamia
and the Bagdad railroad."

Now who in Washington knows anything about Mesopotamia or the Bagdad
railroad?  Yet here is the key of the most far-reaching problem in any
peace proposals.  It is because this matter can now be settled that the
plunging of Turkey into the war by Enver Bey has made all Europe
rejoice.  The Germans think Turkey is another 16 1/2-inch howitzer or
"Jack Johnson" putting black smoke over the British empire.  The rest
of Europe now knows the whole of Turkey is on the table, and the
carving, it is believed, will be had with no plates extended from
either Austria or Germany.  For the first time the Turkish problem can
be really settled instead of patched.

Some years ago I was astonished to learn in Europe that American
banking interests, and American contracting and engineering firms in
alliance therewith, had their eyes upon Asia Minor and the possibility
of its development by American railroad enterprise.  I was astonished
to learn that some people at Constantinople had authority for the use
of the name of J. P. Morgan & Co.  Indeed, a railroad concession in
Asia Minor, the details of which it is not now necessary to go into,
had been arranged, I was told, and lacked only signatures.  The
American people felt that the Germans were the little devils under the
table who stayed the hand of the Sultan, and kept his pen off the
parchment.  Never would the signature come down on that paper, although
declared to have been many times promised.

The English were, of course, vitally interested in any railroad
concessions in Asia Minor as opening the route to the Persian Gulf and
India.  Money talks with Turkey as nowhere else.  The Germans had made
a great impression upon the Bosphorus.  Nobody at that point in the
geography of the world could fail to see the wonderful commercial
progress of the Germans and the military power that stood behind ready
to back it up.

A concession for a railroad from the Bosphorus to Bagdad and through
Mesopotamia to the Persian Gulf finally went to Germany, and the
signature of the Sultan was at the bottom of the paper.  There was, of
course, the usual Oriental compromise, and the concession for the oil
fields of Mesopotamia went to the English; but the signature of the
Sultan is still lacking to that piece of paper.

English statesmen announced that the Bagdad railroad was a purely
private enterprise, financed in Germany by people associated with the
Deutsche Bank.  They had later to confess that error.  Germany laughed
and later openly announced that the Bagdad railroad was a Prussian
enterprise of state.  In fact, this concession, which is likely to be
famous in history when the Allies win, was handed over to the German
Emperor personally by the Sultan.

Already a thousand miles of this road have been constructed through
Asia Minor to Mosul.  The concession carries the mineral rights for ten
miles on either side of the railroad, except through the oil fields of
Mesopotamia, said to be among the greatest of the oil fields of the
world.  They are really part of the famous Russian oil territory
between Batum and Baku, or the Black and Caspian seas, which extends
not only south into Mesopotamia but is now being developed far to the
north in the Ural Mountains of Great Russia.

Steadily the influence of Germany progressed with Turkey, now through
one channel, now through another.  When the Bulgarian war broke out, it
was German guns and German officers and German money that upheld the
Turks.  The French put their money on Bulgaria by bank loans to her
treasury.  The Russians backed Servia.  The French laughed and so did
all Europe when the Turkish troops manned by German officers were
beaten back to Constantinople and the Bosphorus.

Austria extended the hand of friendship to Bulgaria and induced her to
attack her allies, Servia and Greece, thus making the second Balkan
war.  The result was the loss by Bulgaria of part of the territory she
had acquired and a further augmentation in the importance of Servia.
Bulgaria has never forgiven either Servia or Austria for this defeat.

The Servians are the pure-blooded Slavs, while the Bulgarians have a
Turkish admixture, whence their great fighting qualities.  The
Roumanians just north of Bulgaria are Italians, and the defeat of
Turkey in Africa by Italy did not lessen the importance of this
enterprising nation on the Danube, fronting Austria-Hungary and Russia.
Both Austria and Germany were losers in all three wars; while the
treaty ending the second Balkan war magnified Servia of the Slav race
of Russia.  This is the important and crucial point in race and
geography.

Austria, as the hand of Germany, still demanded a union of all these
Balkan states with Turkey and under the aegis of Austria,--which meant,
of course, Germany.

The aim of Germany in alliance with Turkey was, through Austria in
_quasi_-sovereignty over the Balkan states, to carry German influence
by the Bagdad railroad right through Asia Minor to the Persian Gulf.
Germany would thus be, when the work was finished, a mighty military
empire with rail communications cleaving the center of Europe and
extending through Asia Minor to Eastern waters.  With her growing
steamship lines she would touch her colonies in the Pacific and her
mighty naval base at Kiao-Chau in the Far East.

Now, while Germany is besieged on all sides and Italy and Roumania are
preparing to go into the war with the Allies that they may have their
part and parcel in the settlements, it is recognized that it is none
too early for the Allies to consider the map of the entire eastern
hemisphere and tackle that most difficult problem, the Bagdad railroad,
from which Turkey, Asia Minor, Mesopotamia, and Palestine, the great
historic countries of the world, must be parcelled out or dominated and
developed.

The followers of Mohammed are no longer a unit.  They number
175,000,000 people in the aggregate, but India and Egypt have gradually
receded in sentiment from decadent Turkey, now numbering only about
20,000,000 people, and defended by an army of about 1,000,000.  But
this is no longer an army of united, fighting Mohammedan Turks; only a
mixed army lacking in unity, discipline, efficiency and financial base.

Indeed, such are the financial straits of Turkey that a ten per cent
tax has been levied upon the property of the people.  If you hold
property in Turkey and cannot pay ten per cent of the value the
authorities have assessed against it, it may be sold or confiscated for
the tax.

Where the money goes, nobody knows.  German influence with Turkey has a
financial base; 6,000,000 pounds sterling or 100,000,000 marks went
from Germany to Constantinople just before the war, according to
reports I have from people in the international exchange markets.  From
diplomatic sources I learn that this was just one half of the payment
made by Germany to Turkey.  The other 100,000,000 marks was probably
paid in war supplies, including the two famous German warships that the
English allowed to escape from the Mediterranean into Turkish waters.

The little English boy was right who returned from school the other day
and said, "Hurray!  I don't have to study any more geography; the old
maps are to be torn up and the new map has not yet been made."

It is because of the making of this new map that European diplomacy is
rolling on underneath the surface faster than ever before.  Bulgaria
has demanded as the price of her neutrality that she shall have what
she lost in the second Balkan war.  The Allies have responded: "What
you get must depend upon what Servia gets from Austria and in the
carving up of Albania."  Austria-Hungary may lose Bosnia, Herzegovina,
Dalmatia, and some more.  So far as Servia acquires territory here
Bulgaria may push farther south, recovering Adrianople and more sea
coast on the Aegean.

Roumania wants Transylvania just north in Hungary, occupied by
2,500,000 people, the majority Roumanians--this will make her
10,000,000 people--and Italy wants territory from Austria and naval
ports on the Adriatic sea.

Neither Italy nor Roumania has its full war supplies and equipments.
Servia, however, has been terribly pounded by Austria and but for her
good fortune in pushing Austria back out of Servia in December, the
Roumanians with their 450,000 well-organized troops might have had to
come to her assistance earlier than was prepared for.  Indeed, it is
now expected that Italy and Roumania will move against Austria within a
few weeks.  Russia and the Allies are making their agreements for this
intervention.

And what does America know about these movements on the European
chessboard, and upon what basis should she aspire to be arbiter or
peace adviser?




CHAPTER V

FRANCE AND THE FRENCH

Signs of War not Conspicuous--Paris reopened--A Rejuvenation--English
and American Help--French Casualties--French Heroes.


One enters France nowadays by the Folkestone and Dieppe route, which is
a four-hour Channel trip or longer, or by Folkestone and Boulogne, a
Channel trip of ninety minutes more or less.  All the routes to Calais
are used by the government for its troops, supplies, and munitions.
England's hospital base is at Boulogne.  Here is the center of her Red
Cross work, with a dozen big hospital ships commandeered from the P. &
O. line and bearing distinctive stripes around their hulls.  One
hospital ship is set apart for the wounded Indians, and the apartments
within are fitted up according to the various religious castes
prevalent among the troops of India now fighting in France and
Flanders.  Here at times puts in Lord Zetland's yacht, fitted out by
Queen Alexandra for wounded English officers.

When you travel by rail, if you did not know that war was in the
country you would never suspect it, unless you wondered why a
red-hatted, blue-coated guard, with a rifle carelessly swung over his
shoulder, is noticeable now and then by a cross-road or near the
buttress of an important railroad bridge.  You pass trains of troops,
but the uniforms are quiet, the men jovial and unwarlike.  The wounded
are not conspicuously moved by day.

Although you are not many miles away from the firing line, where an
average of more than ten thousand are daily falling, the country is as
peaceful and quiet as can be imagined.  The big black and white horses
are winter ploughing.  The red and black cattle and the sheep and hogs
are grazing in fields and pastures.  The reddening willows speak of an
early spring, and the full blue streams tell the brown grasses, and the
tall poplars that their colors will soon be gayer.

As the shadows fall, no guard comes as in England to pull your curtain
down according to military orders; and, as you approach Paris, you see
families dining by uncurtained windows in blazing light.  You are
astonished after your London experience of semi-darkness to find the
boulevards ablaze and no apparent fear of aerial enemies or
sky-invasion, although aeroplanes and Zeppelins and bombs may be flying
and fighting only eighty miles away.  Now and then a searchlight
illumines the heavens, but even searchlights are far less conspicuous
than in London.  In January the lights were ordered to be lowered; but
Paris will not stand for long London fog, gloom, or darkness.  The
French atmosphere and life demand light.

Paris is gradually getting accustomed to the situation.  More than 30
first-class hotels are partially opened and advertising.  Many of the
business streets have a semi-Sunday appearance.  Boulevards running
from the Place de l'Opéra are well filled with people, and nearly all
of the stores are now open.  In the first weeks of December you could
see the reopening day by day, and when on the 10th the government
returned to Paris, the art stores and the jewelry stores joined with
the confectioners, trunk dealers, and book-men, and threw open shutters
that had been closed four months.

Paris is now normal but not crowded.  Theaters are reopening, but the
restaurants must be closed at ten P.M.  The inhabitants young and old
picnic in the Bois de Boulogne and evince most interest in the defences
about the Paris gates,--the moats, the new trenches that have been dug,
and the tree-trunks that have been thrown down with their branches and
tops pointing outward as though to interrupt the progress of an enemy.
Buildings have been taken down, and the forts of Paris stand forth as
never before; but when you learn how unmanned and how useless they are
in modern warfare, you can but smile and join with the people in their
curiosity excursions.  A single modern shell can put a modern
stone-and-steel fort, garrison and guns, entirely out of commission.

A year ago Paris looked dirty and decadent.  Her building fronts were
grimy, her streets were dirty, and there was a general carelessness
where before had been art, precision, and cleanliness.  To-day Paris
streets are clean.  There is even more evidence of rebuilding and of
modern conveniences.  Motor street-sweepers whirl through the squares,
not singly but in pairs and more extended series, and they move with
automobile rapidity, quickly cleansing the pavement.

I was reminded thereby of a personal experience at the breaking out of
the Spanish-American War.  At breakfast on a Sunday morning with one of
America's most successful millionaires, I said, "How is it possible
that the stock market can be rising as the country is going to war--a
war that may cause some of our new warships to turn turtle and may
bring bombardment upon our sea-coast cities?  Yet before the guns are
booming the stock market is booming.  Indeed, the stock market began to
boom from the time we declared a state of war."

And this successful multi-millionaire replied quietly, "Stocks are
going up because I am buying them and every other intelligent
capitalist is buying them.  Look out of the window there.  That sweeper
at the crossing has straightened up and is sweeping that crossing
better and with more energy because the flags are flying, and the bells
are ringing, and the guns will soon be booming.  War is the greatest
energizer of a people.  There is now profit in industry and enterprise,
and financial equities have increased value."  And for nearly ten years
the stock market booms followed in the wake of that war boom, while
construction and upbuilding went steadily forward despite agitation and
restricting laws.

It would astonish Mr. Wilson and Mr. Bryan to know how many patriotic
Americans are helping France and what they are doing in Red Cross and
other work.  I was surprised to meet a former member of the New York
Stock Exchange in a khaki uniform.  I said, "Are you still an American
citizen?"  He responded promptly, "Certainly I am, but would not the
boys on the floor of the Exchange be astonished to see me in this
uniform?"

I said, "Were there not men enough here to do this work?"

He responded, "Possibly, but quick organization was wanted, and I
volunteered and have held the job."  And he was off in his high-powered
automobile for a run down behind the firing line to one of the Channel
ports.

As the casualties of the French have been ten times those of the
English, American and English sympathizers have turned to France to see
if they might "do something."  An English lady with small feet and
delicate hands responded to the spirit of the hour, left her English
home and her servants, and went to the hospital front in France.  She
wrote home: "I am helping not only to dress the wounds, but to wash
dishes.  My soft hands are parboiled but hardening; my feet are sore;
and my legs are swollen.  I lie down thoroughly exhausted every night,
but I am doing something and am happy."

Mrs. W. L. Wyllie, wife of the famous marine etcher on the south
English coast, looked out upon the Channel war-scenes, and took ship
for France.  She found the center and south of the country one vast
hospital.  At Limoges alone she found more than 12,000 wounded, and
32,000 wounded had passed through that city.  She found the hospital in
need of special bandages and cross-bandages for multiple wounds, and
back she flew to England for bales of bandages.  For weeks she was
crossing and recrossing the English Channel.  Soldiers have recovered
from as many as twenty and thirty bullet-wounds in the flesh.

An American lady assisting in the English Red Cross work told me that
she saw 2000 wounded every day for eleven days arriving at Boulogne.
About the middle of December I learned that orders had been given to
clear the Boulogne hospital base and prepare for a large number of
wounded.  Relief days for the troops at the front were shortened, and
it was intimated to me in good quarters that the Germans would enjoy no
Christmas in their trenches.  The Allies advanced, counted their dead
and wounded, and ceased in the attack.

I do not believe that any great forward movement can be made on either
side from or against these trenches in the winter time.  In good
strategy and diplomacy, the break-up of Germany should come from other
quarters.

There is considerable typhoid arising from the trench-work, but I heard
it stated in medical circles that the Servian troops, with their milder
climate, had found a new way of healing wounds.  Not having the
hospital base and equipment of other countries, they heal their wounds
in the open air with the result that there is no tetanus or lock-jaw.
In Switzerland human tuberculosis is now being cured by exposing the
chest, directly over the affection, to the full rays of the sun.

The casualties of this war have been tremendous for France.  No lists
of her dead or wounded are published; it was at first a life-and-death
struggle.  While the total casualties--killed, wounded, missing, and
prisoners--were estimated in the press reports and by the people as
600,000, I happen to know that they were more than 1,000,000.  Of
these, of course, one third or more will return to the battle-line, and
the French have the satisfaction of knowing that the German losses are
far larger.  But, viewed from a financial standpoint, if this war is
not too prolonged or too costly in life and treasure, France will
emerge from it rejuvenated and reënergized.

Her people are serious and determined as never before.  They now
welcome strong work and strong hands, and if the Republic does not
respond to the responsibilities of the hour, they will not as in 1870
burn and destroy, but will set up another government in quick order and
wipe out the weakness and inefficiency found to exist when the strain
came in August, 1914.

The French nation has never before been put to such a trial.  In every
other war there has been no threat of the destruction of France.
Indeed, up to 1870 France was the great nation of Europe, greatest in
war as well as greatest in peace.  When she attacked Germany in 1870,
she started for Berlin with full confidence in her greatness.  And when
she paid to the Germans a billion dollars in 1871, it was with scorn
and contempt: "Take your money and get out!"

When Bismarck in 1875 discovered the prosperity of France, he cunningly
set about encompassing her downfall.  He knew the world would not
approve of Germany attacking a foreign foe; there was no excuse that
could be found.

Therefore, as he himself has confessed, he started France into
empire-colonial upbuilding in Africa and Asia, with the full intention
of leading her into a clash with England.  When this point was reached
many years afterwards, Delcassé clearly saw the situation, and, instead
of war, made friends with England.  All the world knows the result.
Germany demanded his resignation from the French Cabinet under threat
of war.  France was humiliated, Delcassé dropped.  Later he led the
movement to strengthen the navy of France as well as the army.  It may
be declared that Delcassé created the Triple Entente and thereby saved
France and Europe.  To-day France fights a wholly defensive battle,
supported on the one side by the Russian bear and on the other by the
British lion.  And strongest in the new cabinet of France stands
Delcassé.

France was chastened by the war of 1870.  She will be crushed or
redeemed by the war of 1915.  The spirit of her people to-day is the
spirit of sacrifice.  The French character never before shone forth so
nobly.

"What a terrible disfigurement!" exclaimed a thoughtless lady as she
visited the wounded in a great French hospital.

"Not a disfigurement at all, madame," exclaimed the French soldier.  "A
decoration!"

Out of this war may come great political and military heroes.  There is
one general in France to-day whose name is not widely known but of whom
his associates say, "He is not only the equal but the superior of
Napoleon."  But the great hero throughout Europe to-day is the King of
the Belgians, of that little country that grew daily bigger in the eyes
of the world as it grew daily smaller in possessed territory.  There
are those who believe that France and Belgium will be hereafter closer
together than before, and that--stranger things have happened--the King
of the little Belgians might be no greater miracle for France than the
little Corsican more than one hundred years ago.




CHAPTER VI

THE POSITION OF FRANCE

The Iron Hand of War--Paris offered in Sacrifice--Faulty
Mobilization--The French Army--The Joffre Strategy--The German Retreat.


The position of France to-day cannot be compared with that of any other
country in the war.  The French people have a distinctive genius all
their own.  They are still the greatest people in art in the world.
Nothing in sculpture or painting in the outside world yet rivals the
skill of France.  Politically the French are trusting children,
vibrating between empires and republics, and following only the rule of
success.  In finance they were accounted great a generation ago.  In
savings they have been regarded as world-leaders.

When the stern reality of military necessity suddenly confronted France
five months ago, there was the same old story of graft, fraud, and a
deceived people.

But the war authorities gripped France with an iron hand.  The military
traitors and grafters are in jail.  The weaklings in the official line
have been cashiered.  The politically undesirable have been given
foreign missions.

There was political as well as military wisdom in the return of the
government from Bordeaux to Paris.  The French people were shocked when
they learned that the boasted military defences of Paris, "the most
extensive fortifications in the world," embracing 400 square miles,
were unprovisioned and indefensible, that the government had fled, and
that there was no army to save the city.

Indeed, the authorities had determined to sacrifice Paris to save
France.  General Joffre had no men to spare to be bottled up in the
city.  He determined that his armies should be kept free on the field.

You may ask anywhere in France, Belgium, or England why the French did
not come to the relief of Belgium, why Paris was undefended, and what
saved it after Von Kluck had led seven armies of 1,000,000 men down to
its very gates, and you will get no satisfactory answer.

But when you have studied the situation and the record, you will see
that no simple answer can be readily given.  A brief one would be:
French mobilization plans were imperfect, and, therefore, Belgium could
not be defended by the French.  But motor-busses did what the railroads
were unprepared to do, and finally saved Paris and France.

The French had been warned many months publicly and privately that
their mobilization plans would be found faulty in case of sudden
hostilities.  The railways moved perishable goods at the rate of thirty
miles a day while German and Austrian railways bore military trains at
the rate of thirty miles an hour.

So ill prepared were the French in their mobilization plans that they
actually summoned to arms the men who were to man the railways, and the
railways themselves were deficient in rolling-stock to move the troops.
The citizens responded promptly enough, but France had no bureaucracy
or military plans to match those of Germany, and, as throughout French
history, the leaders of the people failed at the crucial moment.  The
plodding English had to help out the French railway plans, and then had
to turn around and find their own railroad defects.  When England first
sounded the call to arms, men deserted the railroad service to go into
training to such an extent that the authorities had to stop it and
maintain transportation as, of course, an important arm of the
war-service.

The history of the unpreparedness of both England and France has yet to
be written.  It would not be useful to print much that is already
known.  There are two political sentiments in both countries, and
political issues will rise again in both after the war.

A little contemplation here will show the extravagance of many
estimates of the number of men to be put in the field in time of war.
Many estimates have taken little account of the number of men required
to handle a modern transportation service, and the supply organization
to back up an effective army at the front.  Transportation and
war-supplies are on such an expanded basis as was not dreamed of a few
years ago.  The war plans of one generation cannot be the war plans of
another either on land or sea.  That France had 4,500,000 men capable
of bearing arms did not mean that she could hold 4,000,000 men in
fighting array at any one time.

After five months of war France had only 1,500,000 men at the front,
and from the camps and military organizations she expects to have ready
a fresh army of another million in the spring.  But she mobilized
nearly 4,000,000 men.  Paris industry, trade, and commerce could shut
down in a day, but there was no organization that could make in a day
or a week the men of France into an army at the front.  Her 600,000
regular troops were, of course, always in position to be thrown on the
defensive at the German frontier.  None of the nearly 4,000,000
additional men could be got with arms and munitions of war into
Belgium, to meet effectively the trained troops of Germany.

The German troops were "moving" as early as July 25, while all the
governments of Europe, including Austria, were negotiating for and
hopeful of peace.  When war was declared against France, she promptly
offered Belgium five French army corps for defence.  King Albert
declined, saying there had been no invasion of Belgium by Germany, and
that Belgian neutrality was guaranteed by treaty.  Within two days the
German guns were firing on Belgium; but when King Albert then called
upon France for protection, the response was that the French troops
which had been offered had been placed elsewhere.  The regular troops
probably had.  The new troops were not mobilized, and the French
transportation system, to say the least, had not been as responsive as
expected.

France paid dearly for her unpreparedness.  Her richest provinces were
invaded by the Germans and are still held by the Germans in
considerable part.

Caught unprepared, there was only one safe thing for General Joffre to
do--let the Germans expand far from their base while the French
concentrated between the German border and Paris, to strike back at the
opportune moment against an extended and weakened line.

The march of the armies of Von Kluck--"General One O'clock," they
called him, and said his fiercest attacks were at one o'clock--is
considered a masterpiece of military precision.  The strategy of
General Joffre which foiled him is praised throughout France.

The plan of the Germans was to hold the north of France with the army
of Von Kluck while the Crown Prince moved from Luxemburg straight to
Paris.  This was theatrical, dramatic, and Kaiserlike; but the French
would not consent.  They persisted in holding Verdun and defeating the
armies of the Crown Prince.

The English are the greatest fighters in the world in retreat, while
the French can fight best in a forward movement.  The little
expeditionary army of England, originally 100,000 men but at this time
180,000 men, held the right flank of Von Kluck in the retreat from
river to river, from hill to hill, although pounded by 350,000 trained
German troops massed on this flank.  This retreat put the stamp of
English bravery and dogged determination, as before, on the map of
Europe.  Paris was open and exposed to any entry which the Germans
wished to make.  The government had retired, the gold reserves of the
banks had been moved, the people in large numbers had fled.

Indeed, I may say what has never before been printed, that President
Poincaré summoned the "architect" of the city to the American embassy
and, with tears streaming down his face, told him whence he must take
his orders in the future.

Then in a flash went the orders of Joffre along his whole concentrated
line of troops: "The retreat has ended, not another foot; you die here
or the enemy goes back!"  He had chosen the psychological moment.  The
French and English had burned and broken the bridges as they retreated,
and with the recoil the German communications were in danger.

A fresh force of 50,000 held in reserve near Paris flew by motors and
motor-busses against the right wing of Von Kluck, which the English in
retiring had been punishing so heavily.  Von Kluck had been drawn too
far into France with no support on his left from the army of the Crown
Prince, which the French had held at bay but with a tremendous
sacrifice of men.  The German ammunition and supply-trains were broken
and the armies of Von Kluck were hurled back from Paris about as
rapidly as they had come forward.

Then the Kaiser took a hand and cried, "Now for the English; take the
Channel ports; forward against Calais!" and again, as at Liége, the
blood of the Germans soaked the soil of Belgium.  The Allies dug
themselves into the ground behind the rivers and canals, and drowned
the Germans out in front; and when an advance by the seacoast was
attempted, the English naval guns spilled havoc into the German
battalions.  Four nationalities grappled in a death-struggle, but the
wall of the Allies held from Switzerland to the sea.  The Allies worked
most harmoniously.  Belgian knowledge of topography proved superior to
the German general-staff maps.  The English buttressed the French
financially and in transportation and food-supplies.  Indeed, Kitchener
at one time fed two French army corps, or 80,000 troops, for eleven
days without a hitch.

Although England had not the trained men, she had the fundamental
military organization, transportation, food, and finance.




CHAPTER VII

FRENCH FINANCE

Delayed Budgets--The Caillaux Position--Outgeneralled in Finance--Gold
Reserves Undiminished--Allied Finance--No Financial Legislation--The
National Defense Loans.


The spectacle of England loaning money to rich France--20,000,000
pounds sterling, or $100,000,000--was something most surprising.

The French have been considered among the best financiers and
economists of Europe.  The whole world has been envious of the saving
ability of France, and has invited the overflow of her accumulations
into their local enterprises.  For many years France has had the lowest
interest rates and a considerable surplus to invest in outside
countries.  It is upon France that Russia has mainly relied for funds
for her expanding industrial development.  In the Baring crisis she
sent her gold to London to fortify the situation, and in the American
crisis of 1907 she extended her hand across the sea.  Then she turned
about and steadily built up her gold reserve in the Bank of France,
from $500,000,000 to above $800,000,000, although her people were not
expanding in population, industry, or enterprise.  France had grown so
confident that she seemed at one time to have lost her financial
cunning.

In Germany in 1913 I was told that German finance had passed through
the "fire test," that two years of building recession and of expanding
commerce had placed her on a solid financial base; and it was true.

I was told to step over to Paris and see a disordered budget, an
increasing national deficit, bad investments in Mexico and South
America, and disorganized finance.  I did and found it all true.  I
also found that France was fully able to take care of herself without
any outside help, and, but for the specter of outside interference, to
delay her financing if she so elected.

It has been something of a mystery as to how there could be two Balkan
wars and so little of public finance behind them.  Of course, Russia
and France helped the Balkan States and Germany helped Turkey.  The
money of France came from the French banks and was loaned to the
treasuries of the Balkan States and to Greece--to Bulgaria 350,000,000
francs; to Greece 250,000,000.

The French government said that this could not be financed by public
issue after the war until the national budget itself had been arranged,
although French bankers were permitted to float a $50,000,000 Servian
loan.  With the increasing cost of labor and supplies the French
railways had been steadily running behind, and France had to face a
deficit in her budget of something like 1,000,000,000 francs, or
$200,000,000, per annum.

It was proposed last January that the government should consolidate its
indebtedness and put its financial house in order, by an issue of
long-term securities; but Caillaux opposed the programme and defeated
it for many months.  This postponed the issue of the Balkan States'
loans.

To-day Caillaux is about the most hated man in France.  Although he is
financially well-to-do, the people believe that his connections and
sympathy with Germany were too close.  The German press took his side
in the famous Calmette shooting affair and the trial of Madame
Caillaux, and all this record now stands forth most threateningly in
the French blood.

I may perhaps be permitted to say that M. Caillaux has been under
arrest, and that the police of Paris have declared they would not be
responsible for his safety.  It has, therefore, been diplomatically
arranged by the government that he should be now in Brazil upon a
semi-diplomatic and trade mission.

The French loan just before the war was not a popular success.  The
reason is now obvious.  It was sold short from other European capitals
where it was better known that war was in the air.

When a famous "bear" operator reappeared upon the Paris Bourse after
his return from Vienna, whence he had conducted his attack on the
French loan, he was greeted with a storm of hisses.  The French Bourse
is a government institution and must support the credit of France and
her allies.  In Vienna they knew war was planned for the end of
September, even before the assassination of the Austrian Crown Prince
at Serajevo June 28.  This event hastened but did not make the war.

Nevertheless, instead of permitting the French banks to bring out the
Balkan loans thereafter, the French authorities allowed Turkey to come
into the French market with a loan for 25,000,000 pounds, or
625,000,000 francs.

Some people pleaded with them that this money would be used against
France, and that every franc would go to repay the German loans; and
they were right.

In this financial situation France was suddenly plunged into war, and
while Germany and England have been raising money by the billion, the
marvelous thing is that France has made no public issue beyond one-year
notes, but continues to pay her bills in gold and has the exchanges all
in her favor.  Money is flowing in, and not out.

It was most marvelous to find in France, in the fifth month of the war,
prompt payment, no distrust of the government paper issues, gold and
paper circulating side by side, and no strain for gold as in Germany.

Nevertheless, the war has been fought thus far for the most part on the
paper issues of the Bank of France and with the gold reserve of that
bank undiminished.

This is most remarkable.

The first reason I can assign for it is that the French soldier gets
twenty-five centimes, or five cents a day, or one fifth the pay of an
English soldier.  Kitchener's army is to-day costing far more than the
entire French army.  French food is locally abundant and cheap,
notwithstanding the _octroi_, or French local tax of one eighth.  The
main need of the French from the outside is boots and horses.  The
English in France are not taxing French resources at all.  All their
food-supplies, including the hay for their horses, come from England.

The English troops are also well supplied with money from home.
Outside the regular Tommy Atkins, the volunteers and territorials
coming into France have abundant money.  They are the men from the
cities and from the wealthiest families in the country life of England.
There are more than 300,000 of them on French soil, and as they come
and go in France, they are spending not less than four shillings a day
each, or nearly four times their wages.  This makes a daily expenditure
of 60,000 pounds sterling in France, and calling for exchange.  Hence
the English pound has been at the lowest price in France on record,
24.95 and sometimes 24.90.

There is also the additional reason of higher insurance rates for the
transportation of money across the Channel,--a channel infested with
mines and submarines.  It is no uncommon thing for boats crossing the
Channel to sight floating mines, and the wonder is that disasters
therefrom have been so few.

The third reason is that France has very large investments and credit
resources outside, and can still summon money from abroad.

You see more English than French soldiers in the life of Paris.  Their
khaki uniforms are as conspicuous there as in London.

The character of the early enlistments for the front in London is
illustrated by the following story.  An officer entered a restaurant
where a group of English soldiers in khaki uniforms were enjoying their
cigarettes and pipes.  The officer threw some shillings on the table
and called, "Waiter, give these men some beer."

And a khaki uniform snapped forth a sovereign on the same table, and
cried, "Waiter, give this officer some champagne."

Bank statements are queer contraptions nowadays.  While the United
States, with less gold in the country and less reserve in the banks
than formerly, is showing the most enormous surplus--and a legitimate
and better-protected surplus by reason of the new bank act--and the
Bank of England is counting $100,000,000 of gold in Canada as a London
bank reserve, and Russia has counted, as gold in her reserve, money on
deposit which has been loaned out on time; while Belgium is doing a
banking business from an English base, and Germany is inviting gold
from the jewelry of her inhabitants and boasting her gold strength, the
Bank of France refuses to publish any statement, makes no boast, but
holds more gold than ever before in her history.

Only a few weeks before the war was her metal base put above
$800,000,000.  Then she suspended official statements until one was
made to the government December 10, and this showed $880,000,000 metal
base, or 4,500,000,000 francs.  Upon this her note issue, which was
formerly 5,800,000,000 has been expanded to nearly 10,000,000,000.  She
is authorized to issue up to 12,000,000,000 francs in paper.

From this metallic base she increased her bills receivable by
3,000,000,000 francs, or about the same amount that the Bank of England
discounted in pre-moratorium bills under the backing of the government.
Each country took on $600,000,000 of mercantile credits, and both
countries are now finding this item receding.  In France the mercantile
credits have been considerably reduced--the increase reduced nearly a
half--because the men are at the front and business is not calling for
the credits formerly in use.

The Bank of France also promptly advanced 8,000,000,000 francs or
$400,000,000 to the government.

In the last few weeks of 1914 the finances of Russia, France, and
Belgium became interlaced with those of England, and gold credits for
the Allies' supplies were established around the world, shipments from
North America going both east and west into the European war.
Government credit with the Bank of France was then extended, but should
not early in January have been more than $800,000,000.

This is the main financial assistance on which France for five months
conducted a successful defensive warfare, with 1,500,000 men at the
front and nearly 3,000,000 men behind them.

The next most remarkable financial feature in respect to France is that
there has been no special financial legislation, in fact no financial
legislation whatsoever, except the December budget vote to cover
government expenses, including the war.  A moratorium was set up by
decree, but authorization for this already existed under the general
laws.  Under this moratorium payments were permitted at first of 5 per
cent, then 25 per cent.  Later depositors were permitted to draw from
the banks 40 per cent, and 40 per cent payments became the rule.  Then
50 per cent for December, and in January, 1915, full payment to
bank-depositors, although legally the moratorium stands to March 1,
1915.

Among other temporary devices in French finance was the issue by French
chambers of commerce in the south of France of small pieces of
paper,--as low as 50 centimes or 10 cents,--used only for circulation
and change locally.

Many banks closed their branches because they had not the clerks to man
them.  Many bankers lost three fourths of their staff when the
mobilization orders were issued, and all over Paris the banks are
closed from twelve to two because of the limitations of the staff.
When the Crédit Lyonnais reopened its branch in the Champs Élysées a
few weeks ago it was manned by women clerks.

The government loan issued in the summer of 1914 met less than half of
the floating indebtedness and 1914 ordinary deficit.  The balance as
maturing has been merged into the national-defense loan, which is only
short-term financing.  On the 10th of December there were 1,000,000,000
francs of the new national-defense loan outstanding, but it was being
subscribed for all over France daily.  This national-defense loan
consists of three, six, nine, and twelve months' government bills
bearing 5 per cent interest.  I figured that the amount issued December
10 was for the most part used to provide for the maturing floating
indebtedness, and for the deficit on the government budget aside from
the expense of the present war.

As the government is advancing money to Servia and to Belgium, the loan
of 20,000,000 pounds, or $100,000,000, from England can be readily
accounted for.

There were loans from the big banks of France for the government at the
opening of the war, but these loans I was assured were all merged in
the 5 per cent national-defense loans, which have not exceeding one
year to run.

On these national-defense loans the cautious Bank of France will
advance in limited amounts 80 per cent of the face value, but only
where the government loan matures within three months.

The great principle of the Bank of France is to keep liquid.  Its
assets must always be mobile.

There is only one point at which French finance should be criticized,
and as we cannot know all the details of the stress of the military
position when Paris was abandoned, her mobilizing of the reserves still
in disorganization, and her transportation awry, we may not be in a
position to level any just criticism.

But it must be set down in the interest of true report that the French
credit was at one time endangered by the way the treasury, or the
military authorities, handled the government credit in payment for
war-supplies.

Instead of going to the bankers and making its financial arrangements,
paying the war-supply contractors, the French government made many
contracts under which it paid contractors, and purveyors, with the 6
per cent national-defense notes of the government, running three, six,
nine, and twelve months.

As the contractors were making 15 per cent and 20 per cent on their
mercantile overturn, they could afford to discount 5 per cent and more
in the sale of the government notes, and while the government was
passing out these notes at par to the patriotic subscribers, the
contractors were negotiating liberal discounts to bankers and others.

Nevertheless, the stupendous fact remains that France, caught in a
European war most unaware, with impaired budget and a floating
indebtedness, has carried the greatest war of her history for six
months without a long-term national loan and by the issue of less than
$200,000,000 5 per cent short-term notes for not exceeding one year,
and credits for less than $800,000,000 from the Bank of France; has
maintained her gold basis unimpaired; and has kept the international
exchanges steadily in her favor; and all this without any special
financial legislation.

Nor could I find any evidence of a French disposition to sell the
American copper shares, railroad bonds, or industrial shares into which
the French have been putting some money of late years.  But I did learn
that short-term American railroad notes may this year be renewed abroad
only in part.




CHAPTER VIII

THE BELGIAN SACRIFICE

No Migration from Belgium--Germany's War Tax
Levies--Irreconcilable--The Army--No Neutrality over Belgium.


Before Germany launched her thunderbolts of war, Belgium had an
industrious, frugal, hard-working, saving population of nearly
8,000,000 people.  Of these, 450,000 are now refugees in Holland, where
the magnanimous Dutch are providing for them with no outside
assistance.  Queen Wilhelmina declares, "These are our guests and we
will care for them."  Nearly 30,000 Belgian troops have also been
interned in Holland.  It was expected that they might leak out, but the
Dutch are stern in their present position of neutrality.  They
understand their very existence depends upon it.  Some of the interned
warriors attempted to escape, and six were shot by the Dutch.  Nor will
they permit contraband articles of war to go through their country.
While the Dutch may sell their own supplies as they please, all imports
of rubber, copper, or petroleum must be accounted for, and their
reëxport to Germany is forbidden.

Germany also holds 30,000 Belgian soldiers as prisoners.  England took
18,000 severely wounded Belgian soldiers into her hospitals, and 80,000
refugees are being there cared for largely by private enterprise.  The
losses by the war are difficult of estimation.  But at the present time
there are 7,000,000 people in Belgium, most of whom must be fed by the
outside world.

Belgium is the one nation from which the people have never migrated.
Beyond war there is only one power that can move the Belgians from
their soil, and that is the influence of the Church.

Representatives of American railroad and industrial interests are in
Europe endeavoring to induce emigration from Belgium to the United
States, but it is doubtful if these efforts will meet with any success.
There are in the United States to-day only two Belgian settlements, one
of about 1000 people in Montana and one of about 1500 in western New
York.  The Belgian loves his land and sits by his home though it be in
ruins.  The history of the land of the Belgians shows that, as the
cockpit of Europe, it was the battle-ground of centuries; yet her
people are more immobile than those of any other country in Europe.
Earthquakes do not make sunny Italy or golden California less
attractive to their inhabitants.

About $20,000,000 (more than 10 per cent of this came from Belgian
people) has been raised to feed starving Belgians, and $20,000,000 more
should be forthcoming.

The English war office objected at first to the American proposals for
food supplies to the little country.  It was held to be the duty of the
invading Germans to feed the population of the conquered country, as
the Germans had appropriated large stores of supplies that were in
Belgium, notably at Antwerp.

England finally assented to the proposal, as well she might, for
Belgium would starve without food from the outside, irrespective of war
losses.  In normal times, she imports 240,000 tons of food every month.
She also imports most of her raw supplies for manufacturing.  Belgium
is, therefore, to-day without food, or raw materials for her
industries, and probably without outlet had her industries the ability
to produce.  Although about fifty ships are bringing food to Belgium,
they are of small capacity and in the aggregate represent less than one
month's supply.  In the early part of December about 80,000 tons of
food were going through the American committee by permission of Germany
and England.  The people have been put on one-third rations.  Every
inhabitant of Belgium is allowed a pint of soup a day and about as much
coarse brown bread as would make one American loaf.

The German idea of responsibility and power is that of force.  They
have ordered the people of Belgium to love them, coöperate with them,
and go about their business.  But the Belgians refuse to love the
Germans, refuse to coöperate with them and will not resume their work
for the Germans to appropriate the results.  The people of Antwerp were
invited to come back from Holland and it was proclaimed that there
would be no indemnity levied, yet a huge one came down upon the city.
The Germans levied a war tax of 50,000,000 francs on Brussels, and
Rothschild and Solvay are not permitted to leave the city.

Payment on the tax was agreed to, and then the Germans demanded
500,000,000 francs from the entire province of Brabant, which includes
Louvain as well as Brussels.  The inhabitants said it was impossible
and the demand was reduced to 375,000,000 francs.  The inference must
be that the latter levy covers a term of years.

The Germans are provoked that the bank money got out of Belgium.  The
Bank of Belgium sent its gold reserve to the Bank of England,
600,000,000 francs, and Germany demanded that this reserve be
transferred from England to a neutral country; but, of course, England
refused.  There are some banks still doing business in Belgium, but the
Belgians reject the German money except when obliged to take it.

The Belgian stores remain closed for the major part, and the Germans
threaten that unless the Belgians reopen and proceed with business they
will confiscate the stores and sell them to Germans who will do
business.  The people of Antwerp must be in bed by 9 o'clock.  The
people of Liége are ordered to retire at 7 P.M.  No Belgian is
permitted the use of a telephone, the entire system having been
appropriated by the military authorities.

The Germans have decreed German time, which is one hour different from
that of London, but the Belgian people refuse to set over their watches
and clocks.  The Belgian railroad system is different from that of the
Germans,--left-handed tracks and a different system of signalling.  The
Belgians refuse to do the bidding of the Germans and operate the
railroads.  The Germans must move the trains themselves.

The Germans do not hate the Belgians.  They simply pity them, that they
were so shortsighted as not to accept German gold for right of passage
through the country.  The German hate is reserved entirely for the
English above all people on the surface of the globe.  In Belgium 200
marks reward is offered for the capture of any Englishman found in that
domain.

The latest response to Bernhardi's book, "England the Vassal of
Germany," is Kipling's poem in the King Albert book issued December 16
to augment the Belgian Relief Fund.  I clip two verses:--

  They traded with the careless earth,
    And good return it gave;
  They plotted by their neighbor's hearth
    The means to make him slave.

  When all was readied to their hand
    They loosed their hidden sword
  And utterly laid waste a land
    Their oath was pledged to guard.

After the German Kaiser sounded the battle sentiment of Europe by
sending the warship "Panther" to Agadir three years ago in violation of
the treaty of Algeciras, it was intimated by the French and the English
that Belgian neutrality might be in danger; also that the Lord and the
Allies helped those who help themselves.

Therefore, a bill was introduced in Belgium's Capital providing for the
raising of an army of 600,000 men where before were 46,000 and a war
footing of 147,000.  The leader of the Catholic party opposed the
programme, declaring that Belgian neutrality was guaranteed by Germany,
France, and England.  A compromise was effected by which an army of
less than half this number was authorized.

When on Sunday evening, August 2d, at 7 P.M., the German ultimatum was
handed to Belgium, she was given twelve hours or until morning to
declare whether or not the country would be surrendered to the free
passage of the German war battalions.  Belgium had then an army of
200,000 men; 60,000 volunteers sprang to arms, and that 260,000 was the
maximum Belgian army that attempted to withstand the millions of
Germany's armed forces.  Even these were not effectively placed.  The
30,000 men at the frontier were not sufficient to permit of any
effective sorties to protect the approaches to the Liége
fortifications.  It was a forlorn hope from a military standpoint, but
for three weeks the Belgians with shrinking forces held in check the
war power of Germany.  Every week help was expected from the Allies,
but no help came, for no country in Europe outside of Germany and
Austria had any expectation of war.

Down to the ground and their graves fought the plucky little Belgians,
until they numbered, not 260,000, but nearer 60,000.  After every
able-bodied man in Belgium was demanded by King Albert, the ranks of
the Belgians began to swell, and, with able-bodied refugees returned
from England, there are now about 120,000 men in the ten divisions of
the Belgian army.

But England carries, as she ought, the financial burden.  She feeds,
clothes, and equips the Belgians and furnishes the money-supply.  The
Germans still strive, not so much against the Allies as against the
English in Belgium.  Here the fighting is fiercest, casualties are
greatest, and here the reinforcements on both sides are the greatest
per mile of line.

Meanwhile the more than a million Germans in Belgium have trenched
across the whole country, rebuilt the forts at Namur, Liége, Antwerp,
and other places, and are digging themselves into the ground doggedly
and determinedly, and with as great precision and more science than the
Allies.  The German trenches are rather better made and the machinery
for trenching has been, of course, better prepared by the Germans.

The great surprise of the war was the demonstration in Belgium that
forts costing millions, in defense of cities, are absolutely useless
against the big German shells.  The defense at Liége was prolonged
because the Germans could not at first find the exact location of the
central defense.  Finally a German approached bearing a large white
flag of truce.  Belgian orders were given to receive him.  The German,
under his flag of truce, signalled the desired information and then
fell.  Soon after, fell the fort.  The Germans had found the desired
range, and shot.  At Antwerp a single shell was able to put an entire
fortress out of business.

It is the Landwehr and the older men that have been called by Germany
to do duty in Belgium, while the younger troops are sent back and forth
between the eastern and western frontier defences.

An American who has lately been all through Belgium, representing both
commercial interests and charity work, tells me;--

"I left America absolutely neutral.  I was not a student of the war or
of the cause of the war.  What I saw in Belgium convinced me that the
Allies must win and will win.  I am no longer neutral.  What I saw in
Belgium of the wanton destruction of villages, towns, and cities has
prejudiced me as no argument could have done.  The Allies' losses will
begin when they take the offensive against the German works which are
now being constructed.  Soon England will have 600,000 more men on the
Continent and there will be more doing.

"The losses of the Germans have been two or three times the losses of
the Allies in the Belgian trenches, because the Germans have been the
attacking parties.  If the Allies become the attacking parties they
will have to sustain the heavy losses.  But I cannot see it otherwise
than that the Allies must win.  The crime against Belgium is the
greatest crime since Calvary, and it has set the whole world against
Germany.

"It is not only a crime, but it was a military error, for to-day
Germany has 600 miles of front to defend, 300 east and 300 west, and
her losses have been enormous.  At Liége 7000 Germans went down in a
single day's fighting.  One man I met assisted to bury 500 Germans in
front of a single trench.

"I do not believe Brussels is mined; but if ever the Germans got into
Paris they would destroy the whole city before they left.

"I shudder to think what the Germans will suffer at the hands of the
Belgians when once the rout of the Germans has been begun by the
Allies.  The Belgians are unreconciled, and if they ever get weapons in
their hands--well, I will not predict, I will just tell you one fact: I
traveled the length and breadth of the land, saw the women and the
children sitting by their ruined hearthstones, but I never saw a tear
on the cheek of a Belgian."




CHAPTER IX

RUSSIA AND THE RUSSIANS

Russian Reforms--A United Russia--Russian Armaments--The Greatest
Future--Two Water Outlets--The Slav Invasion Bugaboo.


Russia also is likely to bring forth some notable men who have not
previously been heard of before the world.  General Evanoff is the idol
of the Russian army.  He is the strategist who plans the movements
against Austria and Germany in the East, who surrounds Przemysl and
says, "Now, we can take it when we please, but we will not sacrifice
Russian troops to take it now; Cracow is more important.  Lodz is not
important from a military standpoint.  We will surround it later."

Evanoff orders his men to keep out of the valleys and engage the
Germans in the open plain, where their own numbers will count in
action; for in the valleys the German big guns have the advantage.

Russia has been at work steadily since the Japanese war reforming her
army within and without.  More than one third of her officers were
dismissed after that war.  The Russian officials now say that the
Japanese war was to Russia most providential.  It showed the lines of
Russian weakness, inefficiency, and graft, which could flourish at a
distance from St. Petersburg but became exposed when war put the
Russian organization to the test.  Steadily every year Russia has been
systematically and thoroughly routing out graft and inefficiency.  When
Russia starts to do a thing she does it thoroughly.

It was because Russia was rebuilding, reorganizing, and was indulging
in criticism and putting its mind on the weak spots, that Russian
confidential papers stolen in the interest of Germany misled both
Berlin and Vienna as to the possibility of Russia going to war to
defend Servia in the year 1914.

War has united Russia as never before.  The Czar now moves about
unattended, and the country is a unit behind him and the war and
unitedly against the Germans.  From Warsaw to Siberia the German agents
and merchants have been arrested and impounded.  Nobody in Germany can
yet realize how this war has destroyed her commercial relations and
commercial organizations throughout the world.  Everywhere German
people are subjects of suspicion.  You will even hear in all
seriousness that the Kaiser had an army of 150,000 reservists in the
United States with a partial equipment of arms ready to attack Canada;
and I have been told by supply agencies that these arms are now offered
for sale, as the uselessness of any German movement on the American
continent is apparent.

How far Germany is unable to measure the spirit of the English-speaking
people is shown by the fact that she cannot understand why the United
States does not take this opportunity to possess Canada.

I heard of a retired German-American of wealth, residing in Germany,
who was actually invited to go to America to stir up a raid on Canada.
Of course he obediently returned to the United States, and then he sat
down to wonder how he could effectively report back the foolishness of
such an idea without offense to Berlin.

Russia has been perfecting her military organization for ten years.
The expansion was to come in the next two years.  At the opening of the
war she had only 2,500,000 available troops.  For two years she has
been building factories to manufacture ammunition and arms, and these
are now being rushed to completion.  People who have offered her
contracts for arms and munitions have been told that Russian factories
shortly to be completed will make their weapons more quickly than they
can now be ordered and received from other countries.

With arms and equipment Russia can draw 17,000,000 men to her
German-Austrian frontier just as readily as Germany can draw 7,000,000
men to both her frontiers.  In both calculations only one in ten of the
population is counted upon for service.

The story is told of a Russian who was asked in London why he did not
return for military duty.  He replied, "Oh, I belong to the 14th
million, and it will be some time before the 18th million is called
out."

Russia has the greatest future of any country in Europe.  She has the
largest unturned arable soil of any country in the world.  Russia in
Europe is a great agricultural plain.  To the east are her rich
oil-fields steadily expanding north in the Ural Mountains, and east
lies Siberia, endowed by nature as one of the richest countries in the
world, an area in which you could deposit the United States.  From the
Siberian railroad other railroads are now projected; mineral wealth is
being uncovered; and English and French capital and American engineers
will in the future work wonders with the country.

What Russia has long sought is an outlet to the ocean.  This war is
likely to give her benefits which she could never have asked and could
only have fought for.  Germany, defeated, will lose the control or
monopoly of the Kiel Canal, and possibly the country around it which
she took from Denmark.  The Kiel Canal under international control will
extend the Baltic Sea of the Russians and the Scandinavians most
directly to the North Sea and the English Channel.

To the south Russia will have something to say in Asia Minor and much
to say concerning Constantinople.  Certainly her influence in the
Balkan States and on the Bosphorus will be as great as she could
desire.  As long as the Turks remained loyal to England, Great Britain
was bound to maintain their integrity and hold upon Constantinople and
the Bosphorus.  With the passing of the Turk Constantinople is in the
hands of the Allies when they are victorious.  Its final disposition is
not yet clear, but the English people can see compensation in Egypt,
Asia Minor, and Persia for any necessary Russian control of Byzantium.

While seeking one direct outlet by waterway, Russia may get two with
the suicide of Germany and the destruction of her latest ally, the
Mohammedan Turk.

Russia is beginning to be better understood throughout the British
Empire and the world.  The fear of an invasion of Western Europe by the
Slav races is a bugaboo set afloat by Germany, who also propagates the
bugaboo of a Japanese invasion of North America.

Russia is not a competing nation.  She needs the capital and the brains
of the outside world for her development, and in time she will offer
the greatest field for world coöperation.

Japan wants to coöperate with Russia, and, indeed, with all European
civilization.  After the fall of Kiao-Chau she sent arms to Russia, and
she stands ready to throw legions into the European field in defense of
her English ally.  Influential people in England are strongly urging
the military authorities to permit the little Japs to join in.

Russia will keep faith with the Poles and the Jews and set up an
autonomous Poland.  But there is a strong resentment in Russia to-day
because the Polish Jews misled the Russian army in the marshy grounds
of East Prussia in the early campaigns of the war.

Russian military plans had to be changed and the field of war set
farther south.  Here Russia hopes to drive the five million people of
Silesia back toward Berlin.  This will awaken the Junkers of East
Prussia and bring home to the people of Germany what the Prussian
military machine really invites when it attempts a world-conquest.

Russia lacks military railroads and scientific means of communication.
But just as America was surprised ten years ago to find the Japs, as
the ally of England, giving, as the English predicted, "a good account
of themselves," so the Russians as the allies of Great Britain may be
found giving a very good account of themselves in this war.  Russia is
certainly unconquerable from either the Austrian or the German
standpoint, and the smashing of Austria between Russia, Roumania,
Servia, and Italy may be the real military campaign of this most
Audacious War.

American engineers and diplomats familiar with Russia declare that,
properly led, the Russian soldier is the greatest fighter in the world;
and he is getting that leadership now.

The Russians expect the war will be over before next autumn, but
Kitchener does not plan to end it then.  He means to do this job
thoroughly, and his plans are most comprehensive.




CHAPTER X

THE ENGLISH POSITION

A Quiet London--The Call to Arms--No Mourning--The Zeppelin
Scare--German Spies--The German Landing--Kultur War Indemnities.


It is worth a winter trip across the Atlantic to stand with a London
audience and hear it respond to the call, "Are we downhearted?" with a
thunderous "NO!"

It is then you first realize that the British Empire is at war; and
what that war means; and that that Empire has piped to its defense a
free people inhabiting one fifth of the territory of the globe.

The British Empire has war upon its hands a major part of the time.  It
may be in the Soudan; it may be in South Africa.  From some quarter of
the globe war is almost always before the Empire.  But a war summoning
the whole British Empire to arms on land and sea,--that has not been
dreamed of for a hundred years.

You expect to find in London an armed camp, the flags flying, the drums
beating, the troops marching; an excited people discussing causes and
effects of the military and naval programmes; military encampments with
white tents over the plains.  But you find nothing of the sort.  If you
attempt to motor in the country and figure on reaching a certain place
in two hours, you may find it takes you four, as you are very likely to
run into troops, companies, regiments, and armies in training, but
mostly without arms and only partially uniformed.  They are trudging
the highways and the lanes of England from 5.30 A.M. until dusk,--rain
or shine.  Here is Kitchener's army being put into condition, with no
fuss, feathers, or trumpet beats.  The army is "rolling up" and
"hardening up."  But not on the tented campus.  It is quartered in the
towns and villages all over England, and board and lodging is regularly
paid by the government.

There are no noticeable drum beats over England; no displays of
bunting.  Monuments, public buildings, and conspicuous corners, and,
most conspicuous of all, the glass fronts of the taxi-cabs, bear signs
calling the men of England to arms:--

"Fall in--Join the Army at once."

"Your King and Country need you.  England expects that every man this
day will do his duty."

"Enlist for the duration of the War."

"Enlist for three years."

"You are needed to fight for Honor and the Country's defense."

"No price can be too high when Honor and Freedom are at stake."

"Who dies if England lives?"

"He gives twice who gives quickly--join at once."

"'More men and still more until the enemy is crushed.'--Lord Kitchener."

And many more of the same tenor.  Beyond these you will see little
evidence in the London streets of an empire at war.  Hotels are largely
empty; managers very polite; restaurants must close at 10. P.M.; no
after-theater supper at the hotels unless you are a guest.  Men in
khaki uniforms are more conspicuous; and bandaged heads, slung arms,
and legs assisted by crutches are more noticeable than formerly.

The searchlights flash above the city; the street lights are shaded
overhead in foolish fancy as a protection from aeroplanes or
dirigibles.  Curtains are closely drawn by police orders, in the houses
and railway trains.

Yet one of the airmen who had been over London at night told me that
the city was just as conspicuous as though it were wide open in
illumination.  Indeed, there is a general call among the Londoners for
the police to let up and permit electric signs, lighted windows, and
more light in the streets.  But the only answer that came early in
December was orders to turn down the lights further!

In Paris they turned on the lights, illuminated the streets, closed up
the museums and galleries, buried their art and sent the Venus de Milo
on a walk to some storage vault along with the banks' reserve gold.
London's museums and picture galleries are wide open, and the endeavor
to protect the streets from Germans peering down from above looks
childish.  The great strategy of the Germans consists of talking across
the Channel about their plans for raiding England.  I suspect that the
English military authorities do not object.  It encourages enlistment.
When enlistment gets dull, the Germans stimulate it with some shells
thrown on the English coast.

There are only two or three new plays in London this season; the great
war-plays and dramas, and indeed the literature of this war, have yet
to be written.  Nearly all the new presentations for which London is so
famous were set back on the shelf when the business of war started.
Most of the theater programs are revivals of old favorites, and a few
of the theaters are still closed.  All that are open begin promptly at
8 P.M.  Five hundred English actors have gone to the front.

You have to make the circuit to find the heart of England at war, but
you find it--horse, foot, and dragoons; men, women, and children.  "Are
we downhearted?" answered by a thunderous "No!"  Then again silence,
and turning down of the lights, and the steady work! work! work!

"Have you a bed here?" said Kitchener when he entered the War Office.
"Never heard of such a thing here," was the response.

"Get one," said Kitchener; "I have no time for clubs and hotels."

Not only Kitchener but the whole staff camped down in the office,
working days, nights, and Sundays, until Lady ---- turned over her
house nearby to Kitchener and his staff.

"Where is ----?" I asked of his next-door neighbor.  The response was,
"Oh, he is at the War Office, and gets a Sunday home with his family
about once in six weeks."  That family was not fifteen miles from
London.

When a citizen has been suddenly notified that where he could formerly
get a train for home every fifteen minutes, the railroad has been taken
for military service, and he must get his supper in town, there is not
the slightest word of complaint.  He only wishes he could contribute
more to the Empire.

I spoke with Lord K., of B---- & Co., concerning the loss of his eldest
son, as I had known Lord K. for many years.  The manner, the gesture,
the speech, in response, were all one, and brief; just an indication of
sacrifice that had to be made for the Empire; and that sacrifice had
only just begun; deaths in the family just honorable incidents in the
life of the Empire.

You see crutches and broken heads in London, but you will see no
mourning.

"Yes," said Lord C. to me, "the average income tax in England is now
doubled until it is one eighth, or about 12 1/2 per cent, but my
friends in the banking world have to pay an increasing supertax.  I
know many who must now give one quarter of their income to the
government.  They not only do it gladly, but expect it will be a half
next year, and they will contribute that just as gladly."

From the top to the bottom in the Empire, all that is asked at the
present time is a protected food and clothing supply, and everything
else can go into "the cauldron of war."

"Did you ever see anything like it?" said an American banker in London
to me.  "Are n't these people wonderful?  Did you ever see such
resolution, such steady work, such sacrifices, such unity of empire?"

It was indeed worth a winter's trip across the ocean to see it.

Although the newspapers complained of the censorship, there was only
one general complaint from the people in the British press.  They
wanted to know what the regulations were, or were to be, concerning
self-defense when the Germans arrive in the country.  Should a citizen
without uniform take up arms against the invaders?  Had he a right
individually to shoot a German invader?  Was the old rule that an
Englishman's home is his castle, and that he has the right to defend
it, now superseded by any rules of international warfare?

Some independent people of note were declaiming in the public prints
that any German invader of England was a thief and a robber and that
any weapons might be used to attack the invaders; and that there was no
rule of warfare that could prevent an Englishman defending his home by
any weapons against any foreign invaders.

Nevertheless the spirit of the people was, even under invasion, to
respect law and order and rules of warfare, and be guided by the
government as to all forms of individual or collective defenses.  They
simply wanted the rules promulgated.

The English are reconciled to Zeppelin raids from Germany, and rather
expect them.  But there is yet no unanimity in preparation or action.
The Rothschilds have put four feet of sand on the roof of their
building, but the amount of their gold in store must be incomparably
less than that in the Bank of England, where no precautions are visible.

Trenches by the beaches and barricades by the highways are noticeable
along the entire south and east coasts of England, but they are without
stores or equipment.  You run across these trenches in the moonlight as
you journey about the country and for the moment you wonder for what
purpose somebody dug those long ditches by the shore, and what the
trench or irrigation scheme is.  Your answer comes when you run
straight into a timber barricade across the highway nearby.  Then you
look down the coast and see flashing searchlights, note the lights of
steamers passing up and down the coast, and reflect that there is no
universal law in war.  The Channel steamers are carrying lights in the
war area, but the North Atlantic steamers still cross the ocean without
showing even port or starboard lights.  The street cars moving in the
English coast cities must, of course, be lighted and the streets must
have some illuminant; but the railroad carriages, hotels, and private
houses must draw their curtains.  Yet railroad terminals and piers must
have their lights, and harbors must have their searchlights.  General
service lights must be ablaze, but individual glimmers must be
curtained.  It reminds one of Cowper, the English poet, who, in the
same kennel, cut a big hole for his big dog and a little hole for the
pup.

The most talked-of war subject in England is the German spy system.  It
is estimated there were between 30,000 and 40,000 German spies, and
many times this number of German reservists, in England at the outbreak
of the war.  For years England has laughed over German theoretical
discussions of how best to invade England, and German studies of
English coast lines and country resources.

I heard years ago of a young Englishman who disputed in Berlin the
war-office plans of his father's estate.  He declared that he thought
he ought to know the land where he was born and brought up as a boy,
and that there were only two springs of water thereon, instead of
three.  The German general staff said their maps of England were
correct and were not based on English authority.  The young man found
on his return to England that the German maps were correct and that his
father's estate had three springs whence men and horses could be
watered, although his family had never noted the existence of a third.

Two years ago some friends of mine were playing tennis in an English
village and inquired the occupation of two young Germans, who seemed to
be good tennis-players, but without family relations or settled
business.

The response of the hostess was: "Oh, they are just two German spies of
good education and charming manner looking over the country here, and
we find them very useful in making up our tennis tournaments."  It was
looked upon as just a part of the German map-making plans, and England
was an open book for anybody to map.  Baedeker published the
guide-books of the world: why should n't the Germans make all the maps
of the world,--especially if German map-making were cheaper than
English map-making?

A banker friend of mine found two young Germans in his village, with no
other occupation than motoring the country over and making notes and
sketches of cross-roads, railroad junction-points, important buildings,
bridges, etc.  He thought the authorities ought to know what was going
on, but received a polite invitation from the local police to mind his
own business.  When once he lost his way on a motor-car trip, and ran
across these fellows, he was very glad to get the right directions for
the shortest way home.  They knew more about the roads of that country
than did the people who were born there.

About 20,000 German spies and reservists are in detention camps on the
west coast, and on the islands.  Even the German prisoners are kept
away from the east coast, where it is expected the Germans may
eventually struggle for their landing.

I have not the slightest confidence in any invasion of England by
Germany, but I do not understand why German Zeppelins do not move in
the darkness over the British Isles and drop a few bombs about the
country at important places.  It may be that the German Emperor is
right in his calculation that such action would do very little damage,
and would strengthen tremendously the enlistments and war-expansion
plans of the English.

When West Hartlepool, Whitby, and Scarborough were bombarded by the
German warships on the morning of December 16, the English excitement
concerning it was only a small part of what an American would have
expected.  Not far from this bombarded coast is a summer resort town,
where for many years a legend has existed that when in some future age
England decayed and Germany came in, this would be the first
landing-point.

An Englishman two or three years ago took it upon himself to find out
how far this legend might have its base in any near invasion.  He
looked up the record and found that all the leading summer hotels and
strategic points were in the hands of Germans.  Then one day he quickly
addressed his German waiter in his native tongue, demanding to know
where his post was in that town in the event of hostilities.  Promptly
the German replied, "Down at the schoolhouse!"  Further investigation
showed that every reservist had his allotted place before and after the
landing, and his place in the civic organization to follow.  The
Germans had also compiled lists of the people of property in that
vicinity and exactly the character and amount of resources that could
be commandeered from them.

If the Germans were free to map England, why should they not be free to
map all its resources, individually as well as collectively?

I know a building in the heart of the London financial district that
carries on its roof a Zeppelin-destroyer gun.  A few days before I was
last in this building a fine-looking fellow in khaki uniform entered in
haste and asked the janitor to show him to the roof that he might
quickly inspect that gun and see that everything was in order, as raids
might be expected at any moment.  Of course, he was taken to the roof,
and his inspection quickly completed.  Ten minutes later the London
police were there to inquire for a man in khaki uniform.

The English officer said, "Very singular, we are ten minutes behind
that fellow everywhere.  He is the cleverest of all the German spies,
and we are not able to catch him!"

If that spy had been caught in his English uniform inspecting English
defenses, would not everything have been kept quiet in the endeavor to
pick up the lines of his foreign communications?

In writing home from England, even to my family, toward the close of
1914, I thought it just as well to be brief and not too definite with
any information.  I had seen some of the censorship regulations and
envelopes resealed with a paper bearing heavy black letters, "Opened by
censor," with the number of the censor, showing that there are more
than one hundred people engaged in this work; and also directions from
the censorship that "responses to this inquiry must be submitted,"
etc., etc.

Nobody could believe until this war broke out and there descended upon
peaceful Belgium not only armies and demands for their shelter,
maintenance and food, and drink, but also huge demands for financial
indemnification--war tax levies upon cities, towns, and provinces, with
individuals held as hostages for their payment--that German war plans
meant the looting, not only of nations and states, but of individual
fortunes and properties.

It now seems that the march to Paris through Belgium and the imposition
of a huge redemption tax upon Paris and France were but the
preliminaries to larger demands upon London and England.

Indeed, judged by the demands upon Belgium, the German plans
contemplated the transfer of the wealth of France and the British
Empire to Germany; and such enslavement of these peoples as would make
Germany rich, powerful and triumphant for many generations, if not
forever, over the whole habitable globe.  The German minister at
Washington sounded a true German note when he asked who should question
the right of Germany to take Canada and the British possessions in
North America.  Were they not at war, and if Germany were able, should
she not possess them?

It had been understood before this war that countries were invaded
under ideas of national defense.  But possession of countries for the
absorption of their wealth and the enslavement of their people, to work
thereafter for the victors, was believed a barbarism from which this
world had long ago emerged in the struggle for the freedom of the
individual.




CHAPTER XI

ENGLISH WAR FORCES

The Men at the Front--The Recruiting--English Losses--Horses and
Ships--War Supplies--Barring the Germans.


I really admire the English censorship and the manner in which it can
withhold information from the English people, and I see the usefulness
of much of the withholdings.  You are some days in England before you
realize that there are now no weather reports--not even for Channel
crossings.  Nobody really cared for them in London.  Everybody there
knew what the weather was, and nobody could tell what it was to be.  If
reports were printed, they would fool only the German Zeppelins; but
cable reports might be quite another thing.  So you can't cable your
family: "Weather fine, come over."

Of course Germany should not be allowed to know the English forces,
their exact number and distribution.  I was told over and over again in
good newspaper quarters in London that the English had only 100,000 men
at the front, and did not propose to have any more until Kitchener led
his army of a million men or more to the Continent next spring.

I, of course, said nothing, but I knew a great deal better, both from
War-Office sources and from contact with the English officers in France.

It would not be right, although information was not given me in
confidence, to attempt to name the exact number and position of troops
Kitchener had on the Continent toward the close of December.  But I may
tell what anybody was free to pick up on French soil.  I asked an
English officer of good rank how many men the English had at the front
and he responded promptly 220,000 at the front, and 50,000 on the lines
of communication.  He was right for that date in early December, but
later more troops were sent over.  Indeed, they were quietly going and
coming all the time across the Channel, and, notwithstanding losses,
the number at the front was being steadily augmented.  There were also
troops in training on French soil, and 550,000 in condition for
shipment from England.

Kitchener is one of the greatest reserve-supply men in the world.  He
is a natural-born banker; he keeps his eye on his reserves fully as
much as on his activities, and perhaps more so.

When he called for 100,000 troops the British public became weary and
demanded to know how long before he would get them.  This gave an
impression throughout the world that English recruiting was very slow;
but when forced to show down his hand, Kitchener had to admit that
under the call for 100,000 men he had accepted many more and was still
accepting.

Then they raised the call to a million, and in December Kitchener had
more than 1,000,000 men under that call, but I was particular to
ascertain that he had not made a call for a second million.  It was all
under the call for 1,000,000 men to arm.

But I did learn from authoritative sources that a house-to-house
canvass, and millions of circulars sent out, had received responses
that showed the War Office where the number of recruits, or men in
training, could be quickly put above 2,000,000 the moment there was
need or room for them.

When England sent her first expeditionary force of 100,000 men to the
Continent there was no public report of how steadily it was augmented.
The official announcement was simply that the line should not be
diminished and that all losses should be made good.

An American acquaintance of mine, whom I found in France fighting in
the uniform of the English, had made the declaration from his quick
perception of the situation at the outset that if before January 1 the
English should have sent over only another 100,000 men, they would have
only 100,000 left there at the end of the year.

I found his estimate of losses correct.  The English casualties at the
end of 1914 were over 100,000,--killed, wounded, prisoners, and
missing,--or fully the number of the first Expeditionary Force.

Yet every week and every month the forces of the English grew larger
and never smaller.  The filling in of the gaps and the augmentation of
the English forces and their maintenance, munitions, and supplies was
but the smaller part of the work of the War Office.

The great problem was to compass the situation as a worldwide war and
summon and put into an effective fighting machine the resources of the
Empire.

"Not alone the men but the machinery," said Kitchener, "must win this
war."

England had to put into operation machinery, financial and diplomatic,
machinery of men, guns, and transportation, belting the whole world and
bringing the whole forward as a complete organization, yielding here
and pressing forward there, but always firmly pressing to the one
desired end--the crushing, crumpling and destroying of the war
machinery of Germany.  At the beginning England could not turn out
10,000 rifles a week; and a rifle can shoot well for only about 1000
rounds.  Yet in December a single contractor in England was turning out
40,000 a week, and every possible contractor there and elsewhere had
his hands full.

Kitchener must compass every detail from the rifle to the supply base;
from the seasoned wood for that rifle right down to the number of
troops he must have on the Continent when it comes to a settlement;
for, says Kitchener, "You cannot draw unless you hold cards."

The broad sweep of the English preparations may be indicated by this:
that when war broke out England not only commandeered horses in every
city, village, and highway of England, taking them from carriages and
from under the saddle, but started buying them over the seas.  Of
English shipping she gathered into her war-fold such a number of boats
as I do not dare to repeat.  She gathered in under the admiralty flag
so many steamships from the mercantile marine that those which were
found most expensive to operate were soon turned back into the channels
of trade.  With the many hundred steamers that she commandeered she set
about transporting everything needed, including horses, from over the
ocean.

The French bought their horses by the thousand in Texas and contracted
at good prices for their shipment to Bordeaux.  Steamship rates became
almost prohibitive, and the horses arrived from their long journey in
poor condition.  England inspected the horses in America, paid for
them, and then put them in charge of her own men on her own ships, and
landed them by the shortest routes in England and on the Continent, in
prime condition.

Although Germany had been buying liberally of horses in Ireland as
early as March, when the long arm of Great Britain reached out there
was no failure in her mounts for the cannon and cavalry divisions.  For
good horses at home and abroad she did not hesitate to pay as high as
$350.

Americans should not forget that this war has brought about the
greatest contraction in ocean tonnage that has ever been seen.  I
estimate that about one fourth of the world's oversea tonnage has been
commandeered, interned, or put out of service.  Before the war the
Germans had nearly one eighth of the world's mercantile tonnage.  That
is now interned, destroyed, or tied up, outside the trade on the
Baltic.  As much more has been taken by the Allies from the mercantile
to the war marine.  It must also be figured that the Baltic and other
seas hold locked-in ships, and the bottom of the sea likewise holds
some more.

Considering the sudden demand upon the world's mercantile tonnage and
its sudden curtailment, it is surprising that ocean commerce has not
been more interfered with or made to pay even higher rates than the
abnormal ones now existing.

Of war-tonnage, besides three superdreadnoughts purchased and four
finished before the end of 1914, the British have under construction to
be finished in 1915 ten battleships of from 25,500 to 27,500 tons,
armed with 15-inch guns.  The French have finished four of 23,000 tons,
with 13 1/2-inch guns, and are finishing three more.  The Russians are
at work upon six of 23,000 tons, with 12-inch guns.  The Japanese are
building one superdreadnought of 30,000 tons, with 14-inch guns, and
three battle-cruisers of 27,500 tons and 27-knot speed, with 14-inch
guns.

Churchill, it will be remembered, figured that England could lose one
battleship each month and still maintain her full strength.  While the
building of war-tonnage seems to be well in hand, there is no
corresponding replacement of mercantile tonnage.

I have the highest authority for the statement that the world possesses
no machinery at the present time to manufacture war-material at the
rate at which the nations of Europe have been using it during the first
hundred days of the war.

At one time the German armies were exploding 120,000 shells a day in
France and Belgium.  The response from the French alone was 80,000
shells a day, and General Joffre made a request that his supply be put
up to 100,000 per day.  This is for shells of all sizes, and the
estimate to me was of an average cost of two pounds, or ten dollars,
per shell.  Some of the big German shells cost as high as $500 each.
In some kinds of shrapnel, holding 300 bullets, there are more than
thirty pieces of mechanism.

Within forty-eight hours after England declared war she had engaged the
total output of an American manufacturer, whose machinery was an
important part of the shell-making business.  An American factory in
Connecticut received orders for $25,000,000 worth of cartridges which
would mean, at five cents a cartridge, 500,000,000 rounds of
ammunition.  I know of a single order to America from England for
10,000,000 horseshoes.

Through a single agency in America more than $150,000,000 worth of
war-supplies was placed several weeks ago.  I do not know whether this
included a single order, of which I have knowledge, for 3,000,000
American rifles, delivered over three years at $30 a rifle, or
$90,000,000.  The company receiving this order had to work so quickly
to install new machinery that old buildings were dynamited to clear the
land.

Such orders to America are bound to tell upon our exports, and,
combined with the advance in food-stuffs, the loss in cotton values by
the outbreak of the war is offset more than twice over.

America must feel the effect of these orders when the goods go forward
in increasing quantities.  They are paid for as promptly as shipped.
Many an American factory has been put on three eight-hour shifts for
the day's work on these orders.

A Southern manufacturer received an order for 5000 dozen pairs of socks
to be shipped weekly for six months.  The price was under $1.00 per
dozen, with ten per cent of wool in them.  He complained that he was
making only twenty cents per dozen profit, while if he had not been so
anxious for the order, he might just as well have got a price that
would have shown more than twice this profit.

In boots and shoes, England, instead of giving orders to this country,
has been buying leather in America, and filling all her own factories.
It is the policy of England to fill every workshop in her tight little
island before she permits business to overflow.

To-day there are no unemployed in Great Britain, except in the cotton
districts dependent upon German trade.  Wage advances and overtime are
the rule rather than the exception.  The one country that the warring
world must turn to for supplies is the United States, and that in
increasing measure.  Orders for $300,000,000 of war goods already
received must be duplicated several times.

Every American automobile manufacturer able to deliver motor-trucks in
lots of one hundred, has received his orders for shipments to the
Allies.

Germany has now no base from which to get many important supplies.  In
a long contest the Allies will supply motor-cars, shells, guns, and
ammunition to a far greater extent than Germany can manufacture them.
Factories for this work are expanding in both Russia and America.  The
English do not speak against the Germans as a people.  They believe
them seriously misled by Prussian militarism, which they declare must
be crushed absolutely.

Where formerly England was an open door to Germans and suspicions
against German spies were laughed at, the bars are now sharply up.
Most of the golfing clubs have voted to suspend the activities of
members with German antecedents.

At the clubs in Pall Mall, notices have been posted requesting members
not to introduce during the war Germans or those of German descent.

Membership on the Stock Exchange is not continuous as in this country,
and at the March elections in 1915 there will be a dropping out of
German names.




CHAPTER XII

ENGLISH WAR FINANCE

Protecting Trade and the Trader--How German Banks Paid--The English
Loan--England's Wealth--The Income Tax--More Taxes.


A giant Atlas bearing the civilized world on its financial shoulders
has arisen between the North and the Irish seas.  That is the picture
that stands at the opening of 1915, where before Germany had endeavored
to stamp the label "Perfidious and degraded nation of shopkeepers."

Only the pencil of a Doré could sketch this giant and put him in
figures of proper relief as, aroused from his pastime of trade and the
acquisition of shillings, he summons with one hand the resources of the
empire and with the other passes them out to needy warring nations,
taking care all the while that the necessary dealing of exchange and
commerce have the least possible disturbance.

Kitchener says the war may last for two years, but he is making
preparations for three years, and must do this job so thoroughly that
no repetition will be required.

If it is war for three years, then this mighty financial Atlas of
England is preparing to write its name on promises to pay more gold
than all the money-gold on the surface of the earth today.  And England
won't hesitate to do it if necessary--not for one moment.

How can she advance money to Russia, Belgium, France, and other
countries at war or just going into the war, and ask no foreign
assistance, no overseas help,--except to be let alone,--expand her home
trade and wages, pay with a lavish hand, and still pile up real gold
both at home and over the ocean?

The first answer is because she does expand trade; because she does pay
and pay promptly; and because she does protect her own trade.

The United States does not protect its trade or its citizens anywhere
in the world to-day.  It shivers in war-time, and borrows of everybody
else when it has a panic of its own.

There is only one way to make trade, and that is to pay and protect.
England, through centuries of fighting to protect both trade and the
trader, has learned the way to the highest freedom in both trade and
finance.

Therefore, before this most Audacious War was set afoot England had a
very small stock of coin gold but a very large stock of gold
credit-bills.

For years England has held in her cash box from $1,800,000,000 to
$2,500,000,000 of the commercial credits of the world.  With goods and
trade-honor behind these promises to pay gold, she had no need of the
metal but only of command of the seas, that her gold might come in when
needed.  When the war broke out, $600,000,000 of these gold promises to
pay were of German and Austrian origin.  The big London bankers who had
their names on the back of such acceptances could not in honor
underwrite any more commercial bills.  They knew their capital was
involved in collection of those already out.

But Britain said the commerce of England must go on as well as the war.
The people who held these acceptances were promptly invited to turn
them into the Bank of England, which held the guaranty of Great Britain
behind it, and receive the money therefor; the discount rate after
maturity to have 2 per cent added thereto, 1 per cent to go to the Bank
for expenses and 1 per cent to the government for reserve fund to cover
any losses.  Of such bills $600,000,000 were promptly discounted.

I hear that two banks, the London City & Midland with its $525,000,000
of deposits, and Lloyds' Bank, both refused to rediscount.  They
believed the investments in commercial paper they had made were
perfectly good, and that they were as well able as the Bank to wait for
payment until one year after the war if necessary.

But to date more than half of these rediscounted bills have been paid.

It may be of financial interest to narrate how payments could be
accomplished when by the King's orders there could not be any "dealings
with the enemy" and payment to either side was forbidden by both.  Yet
the Dresdner Bank and other big German and Austrian banks have to date
met fully one half their London obligations.

They were enabled to do this because their London branches were
independent institutions whose independence was recognized by the
British government.  The London branches were thus liquidated,
collecting in and meeting their obligations at maturity, so far as
possible.

Liquidation in acceptances is one of the keys to the success of the
English loan.  While England had the ability before the war to discount
$2,500,000,000 of acceptances, and with the present expanded base of
the Bank would, without war, have the ability to discount
$3,000,000,000, or three times our national debt, there is now no large
business offering.  The discount credits can therefore be measurably
turned to the war-loan account.  One of the biggest acceptance houses
in London told me that the post-moratorium bills, or the new
acceptances made after the moratorium, could not amount to more than
80,000,000 pounds, or $400,000,000.

With the liquidation on account of pre-moratorium bills and the absence
of new business I should estimate that the London money market was able
to take care of the 350,000,000 pounds loan put forth in November by
the government without much regard to the investing community.

With expanding trade and confidence, English investment interests can
absorb the major part of this huge loan before next summer, when
another loan of about equal size must be put forth, according to
present calculations.  This second loan will probably be for three or
four hundred millions pounds sterling, bear 4 per cent, and issue at
par.  The November loan was issued at 95 per cent and it was announced
in Parliament that the Bank of England would loan the issue price at
one per cent under the Bank rate.

That the loan was fully subscribed is not contradicted by the small
fraction of discount soon quoted on the full-paid loan.  One could
fully pay the loan, taking the discounts on undue maturities and sell
at a fraction under 95 and still make a profit.

I believe the estimate of an annual English surplus for investment of
$2,000,000,000 per annum is far too low.  This figure is upon the basis
that only about 20 per cent of the river of interest, dividends, and
profits flowing annually to British pocket-books is available for
reinvestment.

In the present war stress and with economy practised to-day more by the
capitalist classes than the laboring classes, the amount of money for
reinvestment should be far greater than this.

English finance will cut its cloth according to the pattern.  If there
is only $2,000,000,000 per annum of surplus earnings to put into the
war, that money will be spent; and if England has 50 or 100 per cent
more, that money likewise will be spent, but spent so judiciously that
the largest possible sum from it is kept in channels of English trade.
The British Empire will work and finance the fight thus within a
circle, and right on its own base.

The surprising thing is that it can be called upon to extend financial
help to its allies.  But everybody except Germany was caught absolutely
unprepared.  The war was early on French soil, tying up the resources
of some of the richest provinces of France.  Russia had so little
thought of war that, as I have previously explained, she had deposited
from her great gold reserve so that it had been loaned out on time and
therefore was not available for the start of the war.  Hence we have
the spectacle of Russia gathering up 8,000,000 pounds sterling in gold
and sending it to the Bank of England and, on this basis, borrowing of
the Bank 20,000,000 pounds sterling.

Of course, this is good banking and good business and a good alliance.
The Allies are bunching their war orders and credits, and England is
entitled to hold the bag since she is carrying the financial burden.

England's war finance is not wholly measured in her expenses or loans
to other countries.  In a single issue of a London paper you can count
daily reports of more than a dozen charitable funds connected with the
war-work.  These funds range all the way from "Aid to the
Mine-Sweepers," "Gloves for the Soldiers," and the "Servian Relief and
Montenegrin Red Cross Funds" up to the "Prince of Wales's Fund."

This last was over $20,000,000 before Christmas.  The suddenness of
this war may be illustrated by this fact: A friend of mine, who is
managing director of a big English concern, has assumed the
responsibility for seven years past of keeping in England one year's
supply of everything that his company was likely to require from the
Continent.  This was at a cost to his company of many thousands of
dollars.  With dogged determination he stuck to the same policy for
1914, although in January of that year it was clear to him that Germany
could not afford to go to war.  While he was happy over his judgment,
he admitted in conversation with me in December, 1914, that in January,
1914, the outlook was less indicative of a general European war than it
had been for many years.

Thirty per cent of the workmen of his factory had gone to the war and
his company was providing 250,000 pounds sterling a year to maintain
the wages of the workmen at war up to the same amount as they would
receive if they had stayed at home.  He said that in one of his
offices, of 80 men eligible for the work, 78 had enlisted, and, what
was wonderful, the women were glad to take up the heavy work abandoned
by the men,--something they would have refused to do in all ordinary
times.  On the whole, the output of this concern and its efficiency
were materially increased, not diminished, by the war.

It is figured that troops at the front mean an expenditure of one pound
per man per day, and that English troops in training mean an
expenditure of not less than ten shillings per man per day.

The war expenses of Great Britain must thus be above one million pounds
per day and steadily increasing.  Indeed, the best economic estimate I
have of the cost of the war to England is 500,000,000 pounds the first
year.

While the English declare that they are fighting for their children and
their grandchildren, they are not willing to leave to them the full
load of the war-cost, and gladly do they assume all possible burdens in
the present time.

The income tax, which began in 1842 at two pence in the pound, has now
been doubled from one shilling and three pence to two shillings and six
pence in the pound.  This is on the average, and takes nearly one
eighth of a man's income.  There are very great variations in this tax.
The rate I have given is the rate on dividends.  Upon wages and
salaries the tax is somewhat less.

The income tax is also apportioned over a three years' average.  The
supertax raises the contribution of the wealthy to one fourth of their
incomes, although on the average it is figured to take only an eighth.

It is expected that the income tax may be further increased, possibly
doubled, next year.  I was not surprised therefore to find American
millionaires with houses in London returning to New York and making
sure of their American citizenship.

Every penny in the pound in the tax rate produces 2,500,000 pounds
sterling, or $12,500,000, nearly one half the national income tax of
the United States for 1913.  Indeed, the English income tax for the
year ending March 31,1915, is estimated to produce 75,000,000 pounds
sterling, or about twelve times the income tax of the United States and
from less than half the number of people.  In other words, the income
tax of Great Britain per capita is this year twenty-five times that of
the United States.

But still the United States is really in no need either of income tax
or of war-machinery.  It is too late for the United States to prepare
for any contest with the one nation that goes to war over
tariffs--Germany.

After this war and a settlement of the Mexican situation, warships will
be for sale at fifty cents on the dollar.  Germany will have no navy of
consequence, and England will reduce her present navy by at least one
half, since her expansion of late years has been forced entirely by
Germany.




CHAPTER XIII

GERMAN RESOURCES

The Food-Supply--War Expenses--The Copper Supply--The Call for Gold--No
Outside Resources--The Human Sacrifice.


Counting Montenegro and Servia as two nations, there are now seven
countries at war against Germany, Austria, and Turkey, and two more,
possibly three, may join in within a few weeks.  If Greece enters the
battle-line, it will be ten nations against three.  When Roumania and
Italy join the Allies, as is now being diplomatically arranged, Germany
will be completely surrounded, with Switzerland, Holland, and Denmark
in a measure locked in and powerless to give aid or assistance to the
Germans.  Indeed, these three smaller countries and Scandinavia are
practically locked in now, with the North Sea placed in the war zone,
and Italy as well as Denmark and Holland shutting out all contraband
goods for reëxport to Germany and Austria.

Thus we have the spectacle of two nations of more than 115,000,000
people actually surrounded and besieged.  Jointly these two nations in
occupation of their entire territory could feed themselves from their
own soil.  They cannot be starved out, as in a besieged city, for lack
of bread, meat, or drink.  But the siege at the present time is not
against the people of Germany and Austria: it is against the
war-machine of Germany.  This war-machine can be starved out when cut
off from gold, copper, rubber, and oils.  If these cannot be cut off,
then her men must be cut down.

Germany has raised by war-loan $1,100,000,000.  She has spent this and
$500,000,000 more besides.  The financial strain is shown in her paper
and exchanges at discounts outside her own border.  Within her own
realm she is piling up a gold reserve in her great bank, to sustain her
expanded paper issues and her strained credit; but how is she securing
the gold?

Calling a mark a shilling, or 25 cents, let us speak for a moment of
Germany's finances in marks.  After the war of 1870 she planted
125,000,000 marks in gold from the French indemnity in her war-tower at
Spandau.  In June, 1913, the Reichstag voted to double this to
250,000,000 marks in gold, the addition to be known also as the Spandau
tower reserve, but to be placed in the Reichsbank and not counted in
the bank reserves.  There was also to be coined 125,000,000 marks in
silver.

The whole was simply a stirrup-cup to enable Germany quickly to bound
into the war-saddle with purchase of horses, food, and the light or
perishable munitions of war which must be had at the outset and at a
time when war panic first seizes the currency and supplies of a
community.

The basis of German finance was 1,200,000,000 marks in specie, mostly
gold, in the vaults of the Reichsbank at Berlin--the central bank of
issue and bankers' deposits--with its 485 branches.

Before the war this metal reserve had been brought up to 1,400,000,000
marks.  At the outbreak of the war, of course, the Spandau tower
reserve in specie must have gone into the bank, and every metal reserve
that the government could lay its hands upon likewise went into the
bank.  Germany then boasted a gold reserve approaching 2,000,000,000
marks.  In this month of February the bank gold reserve was put well
above 2,000,000,000.

Bank-paper issues meanwhile expanded by the billion.

The great contest in Germany is to maintain this bank metal reserve,
and it is the task of Sisyphus and of herculean proportions.  Outside
of the United States, Germany has probably little, if any, credit
to-day.  She must pay in gold for what she buys from without, and from
without she must get copper and oil.  Lubricating oils are troubling
her now quite as much as diminishing supplies of gasolene.

To get copper for munitions of war she can produce within her own
borders 90,000,000 pounds.  Of late years she has been importing from
America 300,000,000 pounds per annum, so that electrification has been
going on for many years all over Germany, and copper wires in
telegraph-postoffice work scintillate in the skyline of the German
cities.  These can come down and be replaced with iron or aluminum.  Of
course, the first wires to come down will be the power-transmission
wires.  They can readily be replaced with aluminum, of which Germany is
the parent producer.  A very fair telephone service can be maintained
with iron wires.  Those who are looking for the exhaustion of Germany
on a copper basis are reckoning without knowledge of German resources.

For petrol she can substitute benzol and alcohol, with some
inconvenience.  Germany is likewise the home and center of industrial
alcohol, which it manufactures from surplus products.  But when it
comes to gold, there is the rub.  Germany fixes a price of 20 cents a
pound for copper within her own borders, but the government will pay 30
cents a pound to anybody who will deliver it to her from the outside.
Indeed, I have heard of one lot of copper in Sweden for which 40 cents
a pound was bid if the parties could ship it out across the Baltic.

I have a friend who was bid $5 a gallon for gasolene if he would land
it within Germany, but such bids are not necessarily convincing.  They
may be made to fool the enemy.  There are also stories of great
underground storage-tanks of petroleum, owned by the government and
concealed in the Black Forest, that have never yet been touched.  It is
inconceivable that Germany should plunge into a great war without
having resources of copper and petroleum.  But for all that is bought
from without she must pay gold.  No financiers know better the value of
gold as the underpinning in finance than do the Germans.

Germany was very lavish with her gold at the start, and the French
believed that it was an assistance in her military strategy.  At the
battle of Charleroi 50,000 German cavalry screened an unsuspected
infantry force of 300,000 men and the French had to retreat; but that
Maubeuge surrendered 40,000 men, without more fighting, gives rise in
the French mind to suspicions of German gold.  The anathemas of the
French against their commander at Maubeuge make it much safer for him
to remain a prisoner in Germany.  The French caught one German wearing
a French uniform but having upon his person one million francs.  Of
course, they shot him as a spy, but they were more incensed by the
bribes he carried than by his uniform.

Everybody in Germany is called upon to lend a hand in maintaining the
supply of gold for the government.  The patriotism of the people was
first appealed to.  Then laws were passed.  People are "requested" to
give up their jewelry, to make a patriotic sacrifice of it for the
Fatherland.  Cards are printed in the newspapers urging the people for
the sake of the Fatherland to bring all their gold into the Reichsbank.

So fine is the search for gold that wedding rings are given from the
fingers of the women, and iron rings are substituted as badges of
patriotism.

While every other nation on earth since 1900 has been accumulating gold
in bank reserve, England alone has stood aloof and accumulated credit
instead of gold.  English financiers laugh at gold except as it can be
made useful.  They prefer to hold interest-bearing promises to pay
gold.  To-day England holds the keys to the world's gold outside of
Germany, and I have a suspicion that she is not averse to American
cotton going into Germany if it takes out the gold in return.

Germany is young as a banking, trading, and industrial nation.  England
insists that both men and gold must be at work.  In Germany the gold
reserve must be maintained and, with foreign trade cut off, men must be
idle.  In England both the gold and the men are at work.  Labor was
never better employed in England than to-day.  The English policy in
this wartime is to fill every idle hand with productive industry; to
work the machinery day and night; and to keep the gold in England so
far as is necessary and to keep it circulating in England.  The
national loss begins when you lose either the golden days of labor, the
gold of the sunshine that makes the harvest of the valleys or the gold
of finance and commerce.

When the Germans fought the French in 1870, 60 per cent of her people
lived on the land.  Now, forty-four years later, she is fighting the
whole world, but only 30 per cent of her people live by the fruit of
the soil.

That is the simple answer as to why Germany, a country besieged, cannot
win against the world.

Germany has no sea-expansive ability, no foreign credit, no
international reserves to carry out an offensive warfare.  Her only
possibility of success lay in a sudden and decisive march over the rich
territory of France, the possession of Paris, and a huge indemnity tax
levy as in 1871.  The rest might have been easy.  Hence the supreme
military necessity for a quick drive through Belgium, the only open
road to Paris.  The size of the crime in Belgium has shown the supreme
financial necessity.  There was no military necessity for the outrage
against the free Belgian people--only the economic necessity.

There is nothing left for Germany but a defensive warfare, a warfare
now conducted upon foreign soil just over her own borders--the burden
upon the enemy, the supply base near at hand.

Germany must reduce and conserve her shell-fire.  The Krupp works have
no ability to turn out daily the number of shells that Germany was
exploding, and the United States in its own arsenals could not in a
year make a week's supply of shells at the rate at which they were
being exploded from Switzerland to the English Channel.

Greater than progress in the arts of peace is progress in the art of
war.  We have read in the American papers of a most wonderful new
French shell that in bursting paralyzes and destroys life so instantly
that all the living things within so many yards are, in a flash, set
rigid in position as though manufactured for Jarley's Wax Works, the
officer standing in position with uplifted arm, yet dead, the soldier
by the window with a cigar in his fingers, a smile on his face, stone
dead.

I was informed that the effectiveness of this shell was not due to its
poisonous gases but to the fact that, instead of being filled with
bullets, it was charged with a wonderful new explosive.

For the development of the science of war twelve months in the line of
battle is worth in new inventions ten years of peaceful military study.
A three years' warfare for which the English are planning is likely to
put Germany's thirty years of "peaceful" war preparation quite in the
shade, so far as practical results are concerned.

I hear of new and more powerful mortars and cannon, wonderful new
rifles, now being manufactured by the million from secret plans, and
new guns to bring down Zeppelins, that it is not useful to discuss here.

In the first six months of this war, the German casualties must be well
up toward 2,000,000.  A million of the injured may go back to the
firing line.

But in killed, seriously wounded, missing, and prisoners, Germany must
be losing at the rate of 2,000,000 men a year, and the forces of
destruction against her will increase rather than diminish.  That she
can lose at this rate for three years and have anything left worth
consideration as a military power is beyond reason.

Nevertheless, when I spoke with a very prominent American, now in a
responsible position abroad, he said: "The Germans have food and
supplies, and they have an idea; and the only way to overcome that idea
is by their destruction.  The South had no resources for a three-year
or four-year war, but it had an institution, an idea, and a
determination.  If you will recall it, at the close of the war there
were practically no men left in the South.  This war will be over when
the fighting men of Germany have been killed off."

I have so much respect for the business, mathematical, and scientific
mind of Germany, that I cannot believe she will prefer the destruction
of the German people, individually or collectively, to the destruction
of the German war-machine which set on this war.

I make the following estimate of the casualties--killed, wounded,
missing, and prisoners--of the warring powers, omitting Turkey and
Japan, up to February 1, 1915:--

  German........ 1,800,000
  French........ 1,200,000
  Russian....... 1,600,000
  Austrian...... 1,300,000
  Belgian.......   200,000
  Servian.......   150,000
  Montenegrin...    20,000
  English.......   110,000
    Total....... 6,280,000


Not in a hundred years, or since the Napoleonic wars of 1793 to 1815,
has there been any war approaching these casualties now reaching in six
months to six millions.

A remarkable statistical fact concerning the war, which I ran across in
London, was a computation that the deaths in the navy were
substantially equal to those in the army, from the beginning of the war
up into November.  Of casualties in the army, only about 10 per cent
are deaths.  There are few wounded to be returned home from a naval
disaster.  When the English army had suffered about 60,000 casualties,
making about 6000 men killed, at the same time from the naval service
6000 boys in blue had gone down to watery graves.




CHAPTER XIV

IS IT THE PEOPLE'S WAR?

German Socialism--German Unity--A Reverse Political System--Business
Men without Political Influence--A Voice from the People--The German
War Lord.


In America there is no greater conflict of opinion than over the
question of the relations of the German people to the present war.
There are those who declare most emphatically that when the German
people once understand this war there will be revolution in Germany,
uprising of the socialists, and the sure overthrow of the Hohenzollern
dynasty.

Such opinions are not well based, and their authors do not understand
the German temperament, the principles of German government, German
organization, or German Socialism.

Socialism in Germany is neither of the destructive order of that in
Russia, nor of the wild varieties found in America; nor has it even the
order of the Socialism of England.  Twenty years ago the Socialism of
Germany might be recorded as against the invasion of Belgium, and the
bonds of Socialism existing between Belgium, France, and Germany might
have interfered with the war programme.

But Socialism in Germany has passed the stage of labor-agitation.
Indeed, it has been transformed in the reign of the present Kaiser from
agitation against capitalism within the empire to agitation for the
expansion of Germany in the territory of its neighbors throughout the
world, that German labor may, through German arms, enter into and
possess the land without.  German Socialism is thus allied with German
militarism, and it has also become the respectable party of opposition
in the Reichstag.  The middle classes of Germany of late years have
voted for Socialistic candidates whenever they disagreed with the
government.  It is the party of protest and of opposition.  It is a
party of the empire, not of any world socialistic movement.

Germany is thoroughly knit together in support of its government and
its Kaiser.  The German people do not seek a constitutional government
like England, or a republican form of government like France or the
United States.  They believe their situation and safety in the middle
of Europe call for a more autocratic form of government, and one not
too quickly responsive to popular sentiment.

Germany was made by Bismarck and the armies of Von Moltke supporting
the Hohenzollern dynasty.  This made Prussia the center of Germany
industrially, financially, and as a military power, and at the heart
and seat of power, in both industry and finance, sits the same dynasty.
The Emperor is the center of industry, finance, and military
power,--three degrees of empire, each distinct in itself, but each
intertwined with the others, but so intertwined that the word of power,
command and influence comes down from the military seat of power
through finance and into industry.  Industry does not speak back
through the powers of finance to the military center.  The flow of the
German dispensation of power or of governmental organization runs
downward from the Kaiser.  No power goes up from the people or industry
or finance to the war lord at the center.

The Germans know no other system of government.  Outside of Prussia, in
the more than thirty states of Germany, there was the local reign.  Now
over all is the reign of the Kaiser.  The present generation has seen a
united Germany become great among the nations of the earth.  The
English-speaking people cannot appreciate the feudalism and the fealty
of the German people to their war lord.  They say, "Are not the German
people great thinkers; do they not know that the power of government is
from the governed?"  It is inconceivable to them that the Germans
should have a reverse system.

My last word from Germany was with an American lady who has been more
than one hundred days nursing the wounded from the battle-line, and
she, singular as it may appear, assisted on both sides of that
battle-line.  She assisted to dress the wounds of French soldiers where
the lacerations of shrapnel had broken one entire side of a human
system, face, eye, ear, jaw, arm, leg; yet that soldier lived.  She
dressed wounds where more than twenty bullets pierced a single human
frame.  Yet that soldier will go back to the front.  French boys in
their 'teens had died in her arms at the hospital,--the hospital where
thousands of wounded pass through every month,--and she had taken back
to the parents in Paris the dying message.  She had been in the German
and the French trenches on the line of battle.  She had crossed the
lines and been under arrest.  She had seen the horrible picture of
freight-loads of German corpses on German railroads,--corpses
unhelmeted, with uncovered faces, but in boots and uniform, tied like
cordwood in bunches of three and standing upright on their way to the
lime-kilns.  She had nursed the wounded German soldier in his delirium,
crying in German, which she well understood, over the horrors which
still pursued him as he remembered the face of the wife and saw the
agony of the children as he stood in line and by direction of his
superior officer shot the husband dead.  He moaned in his delirium over
the picture.  The faces of the wife and children haunted him, but he
cried out that his superior officer had ordered him to do it; and she
said, "No, these people are not responsible; the dogs of war have
driven them as sheep into the slaughter-pens.  They are beaten, but
fight for the Fatherland.  It is their duty and they obey."

And how has it all come about?  Simply thus: The Saxon was a Saxon, the
Bavarian was a Bavarian; each suddenly found himself a German and part
of a world-power.  Bismarck and Von Moltke had a policy for the
Hohenzollerns; it was a united Germany, and they left it a defensive
Germany.

There was not in the brain of Bismarck or of Von Moltke, or of the
Emperor under whom they prosecuted the wars against Austria, Denmark,
and France, any idea of Germany as the Conqueror of the world.

"Never be at enmity with the Russian Bear," was the saying at the time
of Bismarck and before.  "Always contrive that yours shall be a
defensive war; let the other party attack," was the declaration of
Bismarck.

The policy of Bismarck was: "If you have an enemy, make friends with
all the other powers, so that your enemy be isolated diplomatically and
politically."

The present Kaiser has reversed every one of the great policies of
Bismarck and of his ancestors that made a united and great Germany.

There is not a language in the world to-day outside the Teutonic that
speaks the praise of Germany.  Defensive German alliances are broken
because the present Kaiser insisted that offensive and defensive are
one and the same.  In offensive action the Triple Alliance breaks;
while the Triple Entente becomes, for defense, nine nations instead of
three.

The German people are not responsible for this situation.  Their form
of government has not yet permitted full, free, and effective
expression of opinion; nor does the German seek full political
expression.  He loves his fireside and his family, and prefers his home
ease and philosophy.  He has confidence in his Kaiser and his
government; and his whole training for a generation has been to make
him an obedient part of a military power.

It is gratifying to find that not the German people, but the German
Kaiser, is responsible for this war; and it is also gratifying to find
that there are doubts as to his full mental responsibility.

I have had closer associations with the German people than with the
French, and have liked them better as a people: they are so
industrious, efficient, and ambitious in the world's work.  I know the
German country better than the country of France or England.  I think I
understand something of the over-self-sufficiency of the English, and I
have no prejudice against the Germans, or even their form of
government, which may be better adapted to their needs than a broader
democracy.  But of the German modern war-philosophy the world outside
can hold but one opinion.  It might have been supported as a purely
tentative or speculative philosophy, but it could have been promoted in
practice only by a crazy ruler.  I was not therefore surprised to find
circulated in Paris an article by an American physician which I had
permitted to be published in America at the outbreak of the war,
showing the mental weaknesses and hereditary taints of Germany's war
lord.

I recall him from memory of bygone years, and as I saw him in Berlin
when his grandfather was still on the throne--a young man of about
twenty, returning from the races and dashing through the Tiergarten
holding the reins of six coal-black horses.

I said to myself: "That young man will cut a dash yet."  And I still
see, in higher light than before, those six coal-black horses--the
horses of death.

Recently I read pages of his writings, speeches, and declarations, and
there is not for the world an uplifting or new thought within them all.
What appears to be new is the echo of an age that was supposed to be
long past--when might was rule and valor was religion.

"There is but one will, and that is mine," said the Kaiser, addressing
his soldiers; but it has been the keynote to his diplomacy wherever it
has appeared, either in pushing a commercial treaty on Russia in her
hour of distress, forcing Italy into the Triple Alliance, or dictating
the terms of the Austrian ultimatum to Servia, so that it would be
impossible of fulfilment.

What is there of world-progress in the declaration of the present
German Emperor, celebrating the two hundredth anniversary of the
Kingdom of Prussia,--

"In this world nothing must be settled without the intervention of
Germany and of the German Emperor."




CHAPTER XV

THE GERMAN POSITION

An Aggressive Germany--The Logic of It--The War Party Supreme--A War for
Business--What Confronts Germany--Her Finish.


A mighty nation surrounded and besieged, yet still fighting on foreign
soil, is the position of Germany to-day.  Her triumph would mean, not
alone a European conquest, but a world-conquest.  Her defeat within a
reasonable time does not mean her destruction or dismemberment.  It means
only the destruction of Prussian militarism and that theory of national
existence into which the German people have been led under the present
emperor, that theory which teaches:--

"War and courage have done more great things than Charity."

"What is good?  All that increases the feeling of power; the will to
power."

"The weak and debauched must perish, and should be helped to perish."


This is the philosophy, the teaching and the language of Nietzsche and on
it Treitschke and Bernhardi founded their war propaganda.

When Emperor William II ascended the throne and became the "All Highest
War Lord," he found himself at the head of two great Germanys: a military
Germany arising from the Prussian conquest of France in 1870, by which
more than thirty states had been welded into a compact unity of military
order, commercial tariffs, railroad transportation, and national finance;
and an industrial Germany forging ahead in the commercialism of the earth
at a pace exceeded by no other nation.

Bismarck and Von Moltke had made a Germany for defense.  The railways did
not flow to the ocean for the interchange of commerce.  They ran
primarily east and west to the Russian and French frontiers for military
reasons; but never for attack, always for defense.  It was expected that
France would revive and again seek to try issues with Germany.  In this
she might possibly be assisted by Russia.  Hence the German plans were
for defense against these two countries.

As Germany developed in industry, the military caste receded relatively.
Bankers, merchants, shippers, and traders came to the front.  Railways
bent the traffic of the country to the sea, and harbors and ports of
commerce grew with rapid strides.

"What a wonderful business man is the German Emperor!" said the world.
"He advertises Germany all over the earth by the spiked helmet and the
rattle of his sword, but never war seeks he."  The world must now revise
this opinion.

German unity gave rise to German efficiency and German thoroughness, and
to a demand for a larger German unity.  The whole German-speaking race
must be put together and bound together.  Germany must expand over the
seas, in colonial empire, and by tariffs of her own making.  This meant
that the Germans must have dominion on sea as well as land.  Alliances
must first be cemented with Austria and her neighboring states.  Italy
must be dragged into a triple alliance; and the small Balkan States must
be tied up with Austria, that through an alliance with Turkey, Germany
might reach not only the Mediterranean but the waters of the Pacific.
This must happen before the great try-out for the mastery of the seas.

Now, the central point in the study of Germany under the present Kaiser
is the naval programme for over-seas conquest, which was originated
entirely by the present Kaiser.  It was he and no other who aimed to turn
defensive Germany into aggressive Germany.  He has been the author from
the beginning of the entire naval programme.

Such a plan must take cunning and strategy covering years.  It must
proclaim peace to the world but rouse all the fighting blood of the
German-speaking race.  The spirit for world-conquest must be stimulated
in all literature and art, in education, and commerce; with the
individual and the family.  The danger of Germany must be pointed out.
The greatness and rightfulness of her ambitions in the world must be
brought forward and educated into the blood of every growing German.

While to the outside world steadily proclaiming peace, the Kaiser was as
steadily inculcating war and the principles of war into every avenue of
German thought and philosophy.

The Germans are nothing if not logical and scientific.  They must
therefore find a reason in philosophy and in the facts of history for
their national programme.  Those who found these reasons and logically
set them forth were hailed as the great philosophers and educators of
Germany.  The logic was simple.  It was that all history and all progress
had been made by war; that peace-loving races decayed, and finally
perished, and their places were rightfully taken by the younger, braver,
sturdier, and hardier fighting races.

"Let your superiority be an acceptance of hardship."  "Die at the right
time."  "Be hard."  "What is happiness?  The feeling that power
increases, that resistance is being overcome."  Nietzsche thus talked the
principles of this philosophy; a something entirely apart from the
principles of the Christian religion, but an absolutely philosophical,
modern paganism; a worship of power, the assertions of one's individual
and national self--"The Will to Power."

Treitschke taught it to the youth of Germany as applied to war,--not the
necessity for defense but the justice and the righteousness of aggressive
warfare.  The Emperor and his court hailed these teachings with great
acclaim.  Chamberlain, an Englishman, printed a book to show that all
good things were German; that the great Italian art-workers were German;
that Christ himself was of German origin.

The teachings of Christ were repudiated by Germany, but His greatness in
world leadership must be claimed for Germany.  Had not all the poets
given Him the German countenance and complexion, even light hair and blue
eyes?  The German Emperor bought presentation copies of this book by the
thousand.

If you think the picture is over-drawn, get a copy of Chamberlain's
"Foundations of the Nineteenth-Century Civilization."

There are those who acclaim that all these teachings were never meant for
war; that the Germans, outside of Prussia, being a phlegmatic,
home-loving, non-military people, needed to have their patriotism
stimulated with "war talk" and national ambitions.

Now there are those who see that it was all part of a cunning propaganda
for a world-conquest; that Germany was cultivated industrially and
financially to give base for military operations.

But most carefully have the business men of Germany been excluded from
the war councils.  I asked one of the best-informed men in the diplomatic
cycles of Europe, whose business all his life has been to travel from
country to country studying the languages, thought, and customs of all
people, west of Asia and north of Africa: "Are the German bankers and
business men to have no say in Berlin as to peace and war or the military
policy of the empire?"  His response was emphatic: "Not one word; they
would no more be allowed expression of opinion in the inner councils of
military Germany than would a rank foreigner from the farthest part of
the earth.  Still in Germany is the business of trade apart from the
business of government."

The world may now see that the business of Germany was war from the
beginning under Kaiser Wilhelm II, and that Germany was to be made great
on land and sea by the sword of war hacking the way for German commerce,
German tariffs, and German commercialism.  The old feudal idea of trade
expanded and supported by a war lord has been the idea of Germany since
the pilot, Bismarck, was dropped by the young Emperor from the ship of
state.  War for aggression, war for business, war for German expansion,
has been the scheme.  That these plans were interrupted and the war
precipitated sooner than expected was most fortunate for American
civilization and all civilization, west of Germany.

It was the Kaiser who changed the terms of Austria's ultimatum to Servia,
making them impossible of fulfillment, and then cunningly slipped away on
a water-trip with the fastest German cruiser behind him, that he might
come rushing back and cry, "Peace, peace!" while he fenced off every
peace proposal from effectively reaching Austria.  Servia was willing to
agree to every demand of Austria except that which involved a change in
her constitutional government, with which she could not comply in the
allotted time; but even this she was willing to discuss.  The Kaiser gave
Russia twelve hours to demobilize, and then declared war on her five days
before Russia even withdrew her minister from Vienna.

While the Germans have gone to war to possess the land and dominate the
business of their neighbors, they have not gone to war as savage tribes,
seeking blood and human sacrifice as an end in itself.

I have not dealt with German atrocities in Belgium or France.  War is
atrocious, and you cannot move millions of men to the slaughter of their
fellow men without revealing a certain percentage of crimes kindred to
murder.

In due time, all the atrocities of this war may be shown up in
photographs which have been taken.  The Carnegie Peace Foundation is
circulating photographs showing the atrocities in the Bulgarian wars.  It
might be much more timely for them to circulate photographs showing the
horrors and atrocities of human sacrifice in this most audacious war.

Previous chapters have shown how German diplomacy slipped, how the German
secret service had gathered the facts of the military, financial, and
political weaknesses of Russia, Great Britain, and France, yet with no
ability to value properly the spirit of the peoples behind this military
unpreparedness.  Germany has been described as "System without Soul."  It
remains only to show the relative weaknesses of Germany, and why she
cannot win this war.

The Allies can reach round the world for men, war-supplies, and financial
assistance.  Germany can get no more men, no more gold, no more outside
war-supplies.  She must manufacture and be self-sustaining.

In the first six months of the war Germany has raised a loan of
4,400,000,000 marks, or about 1,100,000,000 dollars, promptly and
patriotically taken by her people.

But international bankers inform me that every dollar of this and fifty
percent more was gone before January 1, 1915.  This is also indicated by
the expansion of her paper money and her efforts to maintain the gold
basis under that paper.

As this is regarded as a life-and-death struggle for Germany, the jewelry
in the Empire must go into the melting-pot.

I can well credit the reports of copper household utensils and building
materials going into the melting-pot for the copper of war.

And of rubber, for which there is no substitute, I hear that above three
dollars a pound is being bid in Germany, or about four times the price in
the United States.

Still, the scarcity of gold, copper, gasolene, or rubber, or all
combined, might not force Germany to sue for peace.

What I give a final verdict on is the tremendous human sacrifice that is
exhausting both Austria and Germany.  I do say from good sources that in
the first twenty weeks of the war the German casualties--wounded,
prisoners, missing, and killed--were above 1,700,000, while Austrian
casualties are now approaching a million and a half.

In the first six months of the year Germany and Austria will have
suffered not less than three million casualties.  Of course, more than
half these people are wounded, who may go back to the firing line.  But
the three hundred thousand and more dead will never go back; and many
vitally wounded and many cripples will be hereafter useless in peace or
war; and the prisoners that are exchanged with France through Geneva are
under pledge and mutual government agreement not to take up arms again.

I have also more confidence in the Russian position, numbers, supplies,
and strategy than is generally possessed in America.

We hear in the press reports of generals at the head of the armies in
Russia and France.  We do not hear of the wonderful younger generals that
war is developing, and who are coming forward more rapidly there than
from any similar developments under the bureaucracy of Germany.

The two greatest military strategists the war has developed are not in
Germany or England.  They are in Russia and France, and their names have
not yet crossed the Atlantic in the press reports.

However long Germany may fight on, offensively or defensively, her
retreat must begin this year.  Then the world will be increasingly
interested in the terms of peace.

Balfour, the English statesman, says privately, "I know the people look
for the dismemberment of Germany, and some look for her destruction, but
this is not the intelligent opinion or intelligent desire.  Germany is an
indispensable part of the world's industrial, commercial, financial, and
political organization.  To destroy Germany would be a world loss."  The
opinion of eminent political and financial people in England is that
Germany can never repair the total damage she may inflict.  So far as
England is concerned, next after the destruction of Germany's war-power,
giving insurance of a European peace, comes first the indemnification of
every financial loss that Belgium suffers.  This is now estimated at from
$1,500,000,000 to $2,500,000,000.

What there will be left over in the way of Germany's ability to pay,
aside from the Kiel Canal, Alsace and Lorraine, and German Poland, is
problematical.

To have Germany able to pay even a part of the damage she is inflicting
upon the world, she must be put back upon her industrial feet.
Therefore, I have declared, when asked about this matter, that in the end
England would be found the best friend of Germany.  But conquered and
destroyed must be the Prussian war-machine of aggression, or crumbles the
art and industry of republican France and the democracy of English
speech, thought, and government.




CHAPTER XVI

THE LESSONS FOR AMERICA

Wealth is National Defense--Gold Mobilization--Food Supplies
International--No Financial Independence--Tariffs as War Causes--Are We
in a Fool's Paradise?


The lessons for the United States and for all America from this war are
so many that it is difficult to arrange them in order.

The first lesson is that nations can be no longer isolated units.  A
hundred years ago the United States desired to be free from
Europe,--from its political system, its wage system, and its social
system.  To-day the United States cannot desire to be freed from any
country in the world.  Its Panama Canal, its demand for a mercantile
marine, for countries to take its cotton and cotton goods, and its
inquiry as to where it can get potash salts and chemical dyes, all show
the interrelation of modern business which has broken all national
boundaries.

England is talking to-day of a closer federation in her empire to
follow this war.  She is asking why she alone should be the protector
of the seas, and of the peace of Europe, not only for herself and her
colonies, but for the whole world.  She is already talking of a
federation for the empire by which Australia, Canada, etc., will have
direct representation in Parliament, and assist directly in bearing the
burden of the maintenance of peace.  I doubt if a British federation
will strengthen the British Empire.  Mutual interest is the great
federator.  The unwritten Constitution of England has more binding
force than the written Constitution of the United States.  The Triple
Entente is stronger and more binding than the Triple Alliance.

The whole world is interested in the maintenance of peace, and it
should not be the business of any one nation or empire to maintain the
peace of the world.

Secondly, if the burden is put upon England to maintain the peace of
the seas and the peace of Europe, she must have a growing empire to
support that burden.

Already the English people see the spread of her influence which is to
follow this war and make Cecil Rhodes's dream of a Cape to Cairo
railroad a reality for Africa.  Egypt, Palestine, and Asia Minor are
hereafter to be restored in fertility and give a new civilization to
the shores of the eastern Mediterranean.

Is it to be assumed that with the new development for Africa and Asia,
Europe is going to abandon her interest on the continents of America?

Will not the very force of these developments make a foundation for
European developments in North and South America?

Have we not seen that the British Empire has still some interest in the
Panama canal?  Is it to be supposed that when peace succeeds in Europe,
and the European nations lie down together for another period of mutual
development, France will make no inquiry concerning her $800,000,000 of
property in Mexico?  Or that England will adopt Mr. Bryan's idea that
any Englishman or American who goes into Mexico cannot look for any
protection from his home government?

I believe that Lord Cowdray is to-day the foremost business man in
England.  He represents oil lands in Mexico worth intrinsically more
than $100,000,000.  Is it the policy of the British government to say,
"Cowdray, forget it, and come over and develop Mesopotamia; living is
unsettled in Mexico, and Uncle Sam has told 'em to fight it out"?

A third lesson the United States will receive from this war is the
value of large units in business and the value of national wealth as
national defense.

Instead of trying to pull down wealth and individual accretions of
wealth, the country will recognize that all savings and every increment
of fortune, small or large, are for the ultimate benefit and for the
prosperity and defense of the whole country.

In this war Russia is poor in railroads, and the advantage that Germany
has held over her in Poland is more by reason of the German railways
than the German armies.  Railways are products of wealth and individual
capital, and the sooner the United States learns this lesson, the
better.

A fourth lesson for the United States from this war is the value of
gold in bank reserves, and the value of ability to mobilize quickly
such reserves.  No nation in the world to-day is more closely tied to
every other nation than by the invisible strings of gold.  Every nation
in the world has an interest in the gold supply and the gold reserve in
bank throughout the world.

There are those in England who still believe that this war will be the
supreme test of the gold monometallic base for money and banking.
There is no thought as yet that Germany, if driven off the gold base,
will seek a silver base.  It has always been declared by the
bimetallists that the successor of gold monometallism will be paper,
and Germany is expected to go upon a paper rather than a silver basis.

In exchange operations German paper is about 8 per cent discount, but
exporting gold or buying or selling gold at a premium is by law
forbidden.  All are penal offenses.

England can stand upon a gold basis because she commands the gold
promises to pay, but in war time she can threaten the stability of the
monetary systems of many countries.  The United States saved its gold
base by closing the Stock Exchange, but the South American countries
were quickly in distress for gold.

To put India on a gold basis a few years ago, a tax was levied on
Indian silver imports with the result that India has absorbed
$400,000,000 in gold from England in the last five or six years, and
where payments to India were formerly one-quarter gold and
three-quarters silver, they are now one-quarter silver and
three-quarters gold.

All these matters are being sharply watched by the English economists.

A fifth lesson we may draw from the war is the necessity for a larger
official representation abroad.  It was fortunate that before the
outbreak of the war the American embassy in London had been moved to
larger quarters by the gardens west of Buckingham Palace.

The strain that was thrown upon that embassy for information,
passports, transportation, etc., was something terrific.  United States
statutes allow this embassy only three secretaries, but it had to use
eight, and the work continued until 3 A.M., and sometimes 5 A.M.  There
was only one relief in the situation and that was in a study of the
queer characters one finds abroad, insisting that they are
representative Americans.  Some of the people demanding free
transportation back to America declared their residence to be in
Hoboken, but could not tell if Hoboken were nearer New York City than
to San Francisco.  It was a great temptation for some people to get out
of the war zone and into America at the expense of Uncle Sam.  The
amount of business transacted by this embassy may be illustrated by the
fact that the cable tolls alone for several months cost more than the
former total expenses of the embassy.

Still another lesson from the war that America must learn is that food
supplies are now not national, but international.  We have seen the
price of sugar in the United States jumping up and down in a commercial
battle between England and Germany almost before their clash at arms.

Before the war, 80 per cent of the sugar consumed in England was
produced in Germany.  England, under her free trade policy, had
permitted German beet sugar interests, fattened upon a government
bounty, to destroy the refinery interests in the south of England.  The
Island gained by the trade because her refineries were turned into
sugar canneries.  Jams and marmalades therefrom expanded her foreign
trade.  Germany, however, at the outbreak of this war, proposed to cut
off, or tax heavily, England's sugar supply.  Into the markets of the
world went the British Treasury and in a few days the government was in
command of an eighteen months' supply of sugar for the whole of Great
Britain.  Down went the price of sugar in Germany, and now the
government is taking measures to restore prosperity to her sugar
interests by a reduction in beet-sugar plantings.  The English
government is selling sugar in England at a loss, as a war measure, and
will not permit sugar purchases in any country where Germany sells her
sugar.

Nothing but the strain of war could have induced the Bank of England to
count a hundred million dollars in gold sent from New York into Canada
as a part of the Bank's metal reserve.

There is now no reason why this relation should not continue.  Why
should fifty or a hundred million in gold be sent across the ocean in
the spring, to be returned in the fall?  The world is going to be still
more a unit in finance hereafter.  It has taken a generation to educate
the world to the right of the individual in the common fund of money,
so far as money is needed to effect transfer of credits.  This is the
keynote in our Federal Reserve act: that business has just as much
right to regulation promoting safe and smooth credits as it has to
national regulation promoting safe and sound transportation.

Out of this war must arise better international relations, and they
comprise not alone the relations of peace, but closer relations to
international transportation, as respects both ships, international
money, and international credit.

While many people are looking for financial independence between
nations, the United States taking back from Europe in the next three
years the larger part of the $6,000,000,000 of American securities
owned abroad, it is quite possible that the opposite will take place: a
greater interrelation, not only in credits but in investments.

If nations are to be more closely knit together hereafter, it will be
not alone in alliances of peace, but in financial alliances in security
ownership.

It is far better for both Europe and America that, instead of Europe
selling its American securities, America should buy European
securities--first, acceptances, making a basis for credits and
international purchases in connection with the war; and later, American
investment in the funds of foreign nations.  It may be that before this
war is over many European nations will have to appeal to America with
their loans.

If France could see her way clear to put out a long-term loan at 5 per
cent instead of short-term loans at this rate, there should be a good
investment field for it in America.

Russia is an unconquerable country, and her securities at a good rate
should be attractive for some American capital.

There is no reason why the 3 per cent bonds of Germany should not soon
be investigated for investment purposes in America.  The German debt is
very small and, however long the war may continue, German bonds will
ultimately be paid.  They are quoted now at about 70, and, with the
discount on exchange, they may be purchased from America at nearly 60,
or to get 5 per cent on the investment, to say nothing of possible
appreciation toward par in the future.

One may well believe the Germans to be misled in this war, and yet
properly await opportunity to purchase at the right time their
outstanding national bonds when these can be purchased so much more
advantageously toward the end of the war than in the beginning of the
era of peace, which must in time follow.  Is it not just as neutral to
purchase German bonds from the Germans as to purchase ships or our own
railroad shares from Germany?

A great and primary lesson for the United States is in a thorough
understanding that this war was caused by tariffs.  The United States
is the home of protective tariffs.  The sentiment under a protective
tariff is national selfishness.  England has bought in other markets
wherever she could buy cheapest, and has kept her ports open to the
cheapest markets.  This may be her selfishness.

It may, however, remain for the United States, while maintaining a
protective tariff, to look to larger international relations and admit
reciprocal trade-relations.  There is a wide field for study here in
connection with this war, for the same spirit--the wresting of
commercial advantages by tariffs without regard to the fellow
nation--is in many countries.

We aim in this country to boycott foreign manufactures with the
declaration that we should give all the advantages to labor in this
country, and keep our money at home.  But what do we think when we find
that Germany has for years run a boycott against every American
enterprise?

America's great International Harvester Company, which has made and
promoted the great agricultural inventions of the world; the Singer
Sewing-Machine Company, that spreads its manufactures over the earth,
and brings back the returns to the United States; all American
motor-car companies, all American tobacco interests, and, in fact, all
foreign companies, are boycotted, or barred, or worked against,
throughout Germany.  Placards in shop windows say, "Don't buy foreign
goods.  Keep the money in Germany!"

The horrors of backing such a policy by a war machine, that would
impose German goods upon other countries and keep the products of those
countries out of Germany, is something to contemplate; but the deepest
lesson from it is in America, which has the tariffs and not even a
defensive war machine.

With the Monroe Doctrine so interpreted that no European government can
enforce security for its citizens or for the property of its citizens
in Mexico, and with a protective tariff under which we can invite
countries to send us goods for a series of years and then suddenly bar
them out, the United States may be dwelling in a fool's paradise from
the political, military, and economic points of view.

A united Europe cannot be expected to lay down its arms, while arms are
international arbiters, until there is a better understanding of the
Monroe Doctrine and European relations to Mexico.

There is only one safety for America, and that is the rule of right and
of reason.  Tariffs should be neighborly; life and property made secure
wherever the United States extends its sphere of influence; and
arbitration should take the place of all wars.

Indeed, the United States, from every standpoint, is the one nation in
the world to be the promoter of peace, and to assist in its
enforcement.  There is no other policy for us from the standpoint of
both national righteousness and national safety.

But this subject is so large that I must present it in the next and
concluding chapter.




CHAPTER XVII

WHAT PEACE SHOULD MEAN

Not When but How--The Argument for War--Right over Might--National Hate
as a Political Asset--The Human Pathway--Peace by International
Police--The Practical Way--Is a New Age Approaching?


The endeavor in these pages has been to show from close personal
research in Europe the cause and cost of this war--cost in finance and
human lives,--and also the lessons that America, and particularly the
United States, should derive from this greatest war.

It is not so material when this war terminates, as how it terminates.
Many people, and especially those sympathetic with Germany, are looking
for a drawn battle.  This means a world-disaster, and no world-progress.

The British Empire is determined that this war shall mean for
generations a lasting peace by the destruction of the German war
machine.  The Germans likewise declare that what they are fighting for
is the peace of Europe.  The Germans, high and low, declare that this
peace has been disrupted by jealousy of German culture, German
efficiency, and German success.  It is difficult to understand the
German logic, for wars do not lessen jealousy, envy, or race, or
national hate.  They only increase the jealousy and put peace further
away than before, unless there is real conquest, division, and
absorption.

Bismarck declared in 1867 that he was opposed to any war upon France,
and that if the military party convinced him of ability to crush France
and occupy Paris, he would be unalterably opposed to the attack.  For,
said he, one war with France is only the first of at least six, and
were we victorious in all six, it would only mean ruin for Germany, and
for her neighbor and best customer.

"Do you think a poor, bankrupt, starving, ragged neighbor as desirable
as a healthy, solvent, fat, well-clothed one?" demanded Bismarck.

France attacked Germany in 1870 and found her well-prepared armies
impregnable.  Many believe that the Allies will find the German
trench-defences now impregnable.  I do not think the Allies will pay
the price in human sacrifice to invade Germany from the west.  The
break-up of Germany is more likely to come from her exhaustion and the
weakness of Austria, against which the pressure will be steadily
increased.  But what follows the war is most important.  If the
victorious or defeated nations are to go on arming, they will go on
warring to the extent that there be left in the world no small nations
and no unfortified area.

If Germany is to grow other navies, and England is still to build two
for one, North and South America must in time have navies, the support
of which will burden the western hemisphere and the progress of
humanity.  It ought to be clear that this audacious war can mean
nothing unless it means tremendous progress toward universal peace;
unless it means that nations are to be guided by the same principles,
practices, and morality that should guide individuals.

I know all the arguments for the needfulness of war, and there is not
one of them that will hold water.  Wars exist for the same reason that
they formerly existed with individuals, or between cities, or
states,--because there was no organization regulating the relations
between individuals, cities, and states.  Wars exist between nations
to-day because there is no organization regulating international
relations.

Out of this war and its alliances must ultimately come such a
regulating of international relations, or the world goes back toward
bankruptcy and barbarism.

It is declared that the people of Europe have wanted this war; that the
Germans wanted to expand by war; that the French have wanted to fight
for Alsace-Lorraine; that the Russians must war for a water outlet;
that the English have favored war for a readjustment of the European
balances in power.  There are many individuals who want their
neighbors' goods, or redivision; there are many cities jealous of their
commercial rivals; there are many states jealous of the progress of
others; but all these no longer think of war as a method of
readjustment, or even of redress of grievances.

Patriotism and nationality should no more be a basis of war than civic
pride or family pride.

Perhaps the first error to be blotted out before a universal peace is
that which arises from the German teaching that the state is a distinct
entity or individuality apart from ourselves; that a state has no moral
status, no moral principles, and can do no wrong; that while we may not
steal individually, we will justify ourselves in stealing, murdering,
and plundering collectively, in the name of the state.

When once this error is clearly seen and rooted out, we shall still
find in every community men who believe that what a man is able to get
and hold is his by right of possession and power; and we shall still
have police regulations, departments of justice, and courts of law, to
defend the weak against injustice from the strong.

We have constitutions in civilized communities to prevent robbery and
the injustice of majorities upon minorities.  We have sheriffs, police,
and military power to enforce the edict of right, when once the highest
tribunal has made the nearest possible human approach to justice.

A distinguished lawyer once said to me that, to him, the most wonderful
thing in the world was an edict of the Supreme Court of the United
States; "A few words scrawled upon a scrap of paper and approved by
some aged individuals of no great physical vigor; and, behold, it is
instantly the law of a hundred million people!"

And, for the benefit of future human progress, the argument supporting
that edict is later printed with it; and that in future any errors
therein may be corrected, the wisdom of the minority or dissenting
judges is as carefully preserved and bound up with the major opinion
and edict, that all public sources for correction of error may be
preserved in the clear amber of legal justice in truth as betwixt man
and man.

  "For what avail the plow or sail,
  Or land or life, if freedom fail?"


And freedom fails when justice falls and right of might succeeds.

The breaking up of the world's physical body, or of the material
dwellings and possessions of humanity, may be necessary for "a new
birth of freedom"; for the incoming of the larger light; for a broader,
more universal brotherhood.

Individual robbery or wrong may beget individual hate, but law in
social organization prevents its full expression.  The extent to which
individual hate may be expanded indefinitely where guns take the place
of law, may be illustrated by some communities in sparsely settled
mountainous countries in our Southern states.  Here family feuds and
individual murder went on through generations, until nobody could tell
how or why they ever began.

A journalist friend just arrived from Berlin in this month of February
tells me he detects a general policy in Germany to direct the national
spirit solely against England, possibly with a view to bringing the
German people into line for proposals of peace with everybody else.
The sentiment of Germany is being swung to-day, just as it has been
from the beginning under the present Kaiser, against England as the
real and only enemy to a German world-conquest.

Punch says the Germans spell "culture" with a K because England has
command of all the "C's."  But the English-speaking race has also
command of the biggest letter in the alphabet, and can say damn with a
force surpassing expression in any other language.  The most popular
song to-day in Germany is the "Hymn of Hate," by Ernest Lissauer, whom,
it is reported, the Kaiser has decorated for this--the only real German
literature from the war.  It is a hymn and chant, and has rhythm, hiss,
and fight in it.  It runs to the sentiment,--

  "French and Russian, they matter not,
  A blow for a blow, a shot for a shot,"

but ends,--

  "We love as one, we hate as one;
  We have one foe, and one alone--
        ENGLAND!"


And when that last line and that last word burst from thousands of
German throats, as in the crowded cafés of Berlin, it is the fullest
German damn that can find expression in German consonants.  I believe
the Prussians of Berlin would be as pleased to megaphone that line from
Calais to Dover as they would be to throw their first shell across the
English Channel.  But if enforced international law did not permit them
to strive for that shot as the expression of their passion, they would
soon forget their hot hate and put their shoulder again beneath the
progress of the world.

Man has come up from the dug-out or the cave where in primordial
condition he won his food by his own hands from the uncut forests and
the unfarmed waters.  As family policeman he had no incentive to
accumulations of food, clothing, or luxuries.  These involved added
police responsibilities and enlarged the temptations of his neighbors,
both men and animals.

Later, his family becomes a tribe.  In combination the duties of
protection for the common good take on a larger view.  The village, the
walled city and the armed state naturally follow.  Each stage of
communal growth reduces the number of men set apart for defence or
police duty.  There is a corresponding increase in the common store of
human possessions and human happinesses.

From states grow nations, then empires, until but a small fraction of
the people is engaged in any way in aggressive or defensive warfare, or
even police work or the determination or enforcement of laws of justice
as between individuals, cities, states, or communities of any sort.

The individual club at the mouth of the cave protecting the family has
become for England a surrounding line of steel ships; for the United
States, of 100,000,000 people, a mere outline of a military defensive
organization, to be filled in when needed.  But for a few communities
in the world that individual club has become a national armory, with
human energies perfecting the most destructive machinery of warfare,
that aggression may be carried on against neighbors, and territory
expanded for purposes of national government and the increment of
national wealth.

The twentieth century has been distinguished by a call to the
humanities; a summons to a larger brotherhood.  This has been the
meaning of the clashes of the classes within all growing
nations--Germany, Russia, the United States.  All that outcry of
humanity against mere commercialism, against the mere financial
exploitation of man and his labor, in this age takes on a larger
meaning.

In great wars material things go back; but the man goes to the front;
and the victorious survivors make a newer and broader human creation--a
new world with a new spirit.

The world has been seeking a solution of many social problems.  They
instantly disappear as dissolved in the hot cauldron of war.  In the
settlement of peace following, they are found precipitated in the fired
solution, refined, clarified,--"settled."

To-day all social problems are merged in the greater problem of
national existence.  Alliances and a larger nationality become
necessities.  Man comes forth in a larger citizenship--a citizen of the
whole world.  There is, there can be, no other solution, no other
universal peace.  From this war must follow a world federation and
international citizenship.

The first recognition of the brotherhood of nations may arise under the
Monroe Doctrine.  While this doctrine primarily is one for our national
defense, it should properly embrace the defense of both North and South
America, any aggression from the other side of the ocean to be unitedly
resented on this side.

The increasing responsibility of nations for their fellow nations may
be illustrated by the case of Cuba.  The United States heard the cry of
the Cubans under Spanish rule, turned out the Spanish rulers, and gave
Cuba over to the Cubans.  In the same spirit the United States, finding
itself in possession of the Philippines, is now attempting to develop
them not for the United States but for the Filipinos.

Lastly, we have the example of President Wilson, who has decreed that
government by assassination in the countries to the south of us must
cease, and that the United States will not recognize any government
thus set up in Mexico.

It is, however, not yet incumbent upon any nation, as upon individuals,
to say to its neighbor, "You shall not arm; you shall not build a war
machine of aggression; your offense against one is an offense against
all; your military invasion against one for purposes of expansion or
self-aggrandizement will be resented by all."

Until we have practical application of a world-wide police in
maintenance of the peace of nations, not alone by international
agreement, which can be broken, but by agreement and international
police-enforcement, so that it cannot be broken, there can be no
universal peace.

We are now approaching that time.

There is no more reason why aggregations of people should have the
right of murder, destruction, piracy, and pillage, than that
individuals should have such right.

This is just a simple, practical question in human advancement.  The
world should now be big enough to grasp and effectively deal with it.
The true meaning of this war is, therefore, human progress: humanity
taking on larger responsibilities--the whole world answering the
question, "Am I my brother's keeper?" with a thunderous, "Aye! we are
one and all our brother's keeper, and we may well keep the peace of the
world!"

There is no question, national or international, no question of the
individual or collection of individuals, which cannot be settled by the
laws which belong in the human heart.  Such laws may be called
spiritual or natural, divine or human; they are one and the same.

Moses wrote no new law on the tables of stone on Mount Sinai.  The laws
were before the tables of stone, and before the creation of the
mountain itself.  It was only for the people to hear and to do.

It is the same to-day.  The laws of brotherhood--brotherhood of
individuals, brotherhood of nations, or aggregations of
individuals--are unchanged and unchangeable.  It is only for the world
to hear and to do.

The doctrine that war is a biological necessity must go by the board.
The teaching that war is needed to harden men and nations must be
placed in the realm of pagan fiction.

If war is a necessity for man, it is a necessity for woman.  If it is
good for men, it is good for children.  If it is good for nations, it
is good for states.  If it is good for states, it is certainly good for
cities.  If it is good for peoples, it is good for individuals.

War is Hell, and from Hell.  Hell may not be abolished, but it may be
regulated.

Wars may not be abolished from the human heart, but they may be
restrained from breaking forth to the destruction of the innocent and
the guiltless.

There is only one practical way to do this, and that is to have nations
under restraint, just as nations have states and cities under
restraint.  Then international courts of justice may perform the same
work national courts now perform in respect to differences between
states.

Man has come up from the individual, or dual, unit through family and
tribal relation, the walled city, the policed state, into the armed
nation.  He is now steadily stepping forth into the world as ruler of
himself, the creator of his own government, the heir and sovereign of
the world.  He can step into the kingdom of manhood suffrage or
government only so far as the rights of his fellow men are recognized.
Evil holds its own destruction, and nations that live by the sword
perish by the sword.

For the United States to rush into the maelstrom of war, with
organization of armies and the building of armaments, is to invite its
own destruction.

For just one hundred years the North American continent has held the
practical example of the impotency of the war-spirit where there is no
war machinery.

By the Bush memorandum of agreement one hundred years ago it was
provided that there should be no guns, forts, or naval ships on the
greatest national boundary line of the world--4000 miles across the
American continent between the United States and Canada.  Nowhere else
in the world have armed men attempted invasion, and yet provoked no
war, no reprisal.  What might have been the relations between the
United States and Canada when the "Fenians" armed in New England and
attempted a raid across the border, if there had been armies and
fortifications on that border?

How securely now dwells in Canada $100,000,000 of the Bank of England
reserve gold!  When German representatives in the United States talk of
Germany's right to invade Canada and get that gold.  Uncle Sam only
smiles and frowns.  And the smile and the frown are potential.  That
boundary has been consecrated to peace; and what would be thought of
the proposal, did Germany command the seas, that Uncle Sam accept some
money or promises to pay and permit the German armies to go through,
according to the proposal to Belgium?

In an age which has abolished human slavery, broken the walls of China,
which is bringing the yellow races into the labor and white light of
civilization, which has made Germany a nation, and spanned a continent
with the human voice so that Boston talks with San Francisco, is it too
much to expect that it can bring the boon of an international
civilization, abolishing national wars?

Indeed, it is right at our doors if the United States would only
welcome it and join it, instead of preparing to invite the old-world
barbarism of national warfare by planning military defenses and naval
fleets.

Did anybody ever hear before of ten nations, and nearly a billion
people, at war, and all declaring that they are warring for purposes of
peace; and may there not yet be that universal peace by reason of this
war, and the war's _alliances_?

Suppose that, either before or after the nations of Europe lay down
their arms, universal disarmament is assented to, and the peace of the
world is entrusted to an international tribunal, which takes such part
of the armies and navies as it may need to enforce its decrees, the
balance so far as not needed for local police duty to be put back into
industry or laid on the shelf, and all border fortifications ordered
dismantled or turned into public recreation grounds--is it too much to
expect in this Age?

What would be simpler than, in the end, to find fortified Heligoland,
not back in the hands of England, but the naval base of a Hague
Tribunal enforcing international peace?